Economy

11 Ways the EU Could Force Greece Into a Deal

After Greece failed yet again to reach a deal with European leaders, it is time for the Europeans to accept the fact that Greece simply wants out of much of its debt and already agreed-to austerity terms. The European Union and the euro have been held hostage by Greece for long enough, and Greece has now taken up more than its fair share of time, considering its liabilities and overall contribution.

Germany, France, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Union and the European Central Bank (ECB) have all tried to reach a deal with Greece in what is effectively yet another bailout with more favorable terms. The one consistent outcome is that all talks have failed at every turn. Greece’s Syriza socialist party was elected with the promise to undo many of the austerity measures and terms that had previously been agreed to.

What is more than obvious is that Greece’s leadership simply wants a “do-over.” Greece’s leadership wants to end or minimize many of its previously agreed-to austerity measures. Greece is trying to get creditors to allow it to play by a different set of economic rules than other nations.

Perhaps it is time for the Europeans to finally admit that Greece just does not deserve to have the euro as its currency. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis have been delaying and delaying a resolution at each and every turn. The IMF even simply walked out of the negotiations.

With Greece’s threats to hold the euro hostage and the endless threats to leave, the time has arrived for the Europeans to find out what happens. When it comes to which European nations are really in charge, have the Europeans really allowed the Greeks to be this important and powerful?

ALSO READ: Countries With the Widest Gap Between the Rich and the Poor

24/7 Wall St. has come up 11 actions and tactics beyond further delays that the rest of Europe and its leaders can take to try to force Greece’s politicians into acting like a Western nation. Allowing Greece to act like a banana republic just hasn’t worked for anyone yet. Some of these methods of dealing with Greece would be akin loosely to Machiavellian concepts, although historically they would be considered very muted. Sun Tzu might even be highly unimpressed with these efforts.

There are also some admissions here up front: Some of the tactics may not be legal (not yet) and may require legislative action. Some of the tactics are cruel, and these tactics are also predatory. Unusual events usually are accompanied by unusual reactions.

Another consideration is the risk that any of these proposed actions and efforts might bring. Admittedly, there are of course many risks. Another consideration is what has been formally published about Greece’s recent economic history regarding its bailouts and how that compares to today.

1. Discourage and Shame Tourism to Greece

Greece gets a better deal from tourism than it gives back to Europe. The northern European member states could embark on public campaigns telling their citizens that every time they vacation in Greece they are just giving Tsipras and Varoufakis a stronger leg to stand on. If the tourism were to dry up in the Greek islands and in the many historic destinations, the local economic pressure would become far worse than it has been so far. The CIA World Factbook shows that tourism provides 18% of gross domestic product (GDP).

2. Threaten to Cut Off Banking Access Today

Greek banks have seen net national bank deposits get smaller and smaller. The reasons are many, but two risks are nationalization and deposit seizures. There has been an ongoing risk that the Greece socialists could nationalize all the major banks. As far as seizure, Greek depositors likely know that the ECB or the Greek government could use a strong hand here. If Greece’s banks end up getting nationalized, would they give deposit holders a haircut? Hint, go ask depositors how much they like it in Cyprus.

ALSO READ: Countries That Hate America the Most

3. Pressure European Banks to Punish Greece

The ECB could try to threaten the Greeks that no member bank governed under EU and ECB regulations will be able to accept future drachma for some period. Even then, they could propose extreme limits on what amount in euros and drachma they would accept and trade with ahead. The aim here would be threatening to financially isolate Greece’s economy beyond the current situation.

4. Public Humiliation of Greece’s Leaders

The European leaders could stop talking about trying to work out a deal, and they could even stop being respectful to Tsipras and Varoufakis. They can start referring to them as naive leaders acting like children, as being financially reckless and willing to jeopardize all member states. This would be highly unusual in global politics today, but this is now above and beyond an unusual situation.

5. Formally Refuse to Meet Going Forward

The parties that have negotiated with Greece still keep jawboning and yapping. The reality is that Greece wants its way and is playing a game of chicken. In order to send the proper message, the leadership of the EU, ECB and IMF need to not accept a single phone call about future meetings. If they get cornered about dodging the calls, they can simply say that Greek negotiations are simply too childish and too unrealistic to bother meeting.

6. Offer to Buy Greece’s Debt at Further Depressed Levels

The ECB is already buying up massive amounts of debt in Europe under its own quantitative easing. If they buy up more Greek debt and issue public tender at pennies on the dollar, then they will have more leverage against the Greek government. Guess what happens when you own the debt, even if it is at pennies on the dollar — you get to dictate more the operating terms. Ever hear of the book called “Confessions of an Economic Hitman” in recent years? Still, repossessing a country or aspects of a country is not an easy task at all.

ALSO READ: Countries Spending the Most on War

7. Begin a Public Process to Figure Out How to Eject Greece

Kicking a nation out of the eurozone is no simple task. In fact, when the charters were drawn up, the process for ejecting a member state was more than elusive — even if there are ways for a member state to try to leave. The Europeans may have to introduce endless numbers of laws and may have to make many endless bills just to begin the process. Maybe it is better to have the process underway. After all, in the years ahead and in future recessions, having this tool may be necessary with other nations.

8. Encourage a Change of Shipping Providers Around the Globe

The Europeans can try to pressure Greece by encouraging Europeans who ship goods out of Europe or around European ports to use non-Greek ships and shipping companies. This would take years to enact, but it is a threat that could be used. While the data vary from source to source, Greek ships account for a significant portion of cargo ships around the world (one-fifth to one-sixth). The industry also accounts for a portion of Greek GDP, and likely contributes massively to some of the wealthiest Greeks.

9. Encourage Boycotting Greek Products and Services

The Europeans leaders would likely not formally ask businesses and consumers to officially boycott Greek products and services. Still, they could hint publicly that if businesses did this that it would force Greece’s hand. The CIA World Factbook shows the following sectors as a percentage of GDP: agriculture (farming, fishing) 3.5%; industry (mining, manufacturing, energy production and construction) 15.9%; and services (government activities, communications, transportation, finance and non-material goods efforts) 80.6%. With Greece’s economic situation, any pressure in any sector would likely cause much more pain.

ALSO READ: Which Stocks Will Take the Brunt of the Next Big Hit to the Dow?

10. Keep Showing the Facts About Greece’s Economic Irrelevance

Greece is just not as relevant to the euro as Greece acts like it thinks it is. Points from the CIA World Factbook show the following in Greece, compared to the EU as a whole:

  • Population: Greece 10.77 million vs. EU 511.43 million (2.1%)
  • Labor force: Greece 3.91 million vs. EU 230.1 million (1.7%)
  • 2014 GDP (PPP): Greece $284.3 billion vs EU $17.61 trillion (1.6%)
  • 2014 GDP per capita: Greece $25,800 vs. EU $38,300 (67.4%)
  • 2014 Unemployment: Greece 26.8% vs EU 10% (2.68:1)

11. Publish What Assets Would Be Repossessed

Imagine if the Europeans and international creditors started to publish what they could repossess in Greece, or what assets could be targeted for repossession outside of Greece. Imagine if Greece started to worry that its assets had no safety nets or that all state-owned assets might get taken over by foreign owners who play by different rules. Imagine if the historical sites were targeted to be foreign owned. Can a nation repossess groups of islands without military force? Would the threat even be taken seriously?

Risk to These Actions — Yes, There Are Risks

Treating the Greek leadership with animosity and shame does of course come with risks. Threatening to economically target Greece also comes with risks. Every step that the EU takes could come with a public backlash in Greece. The backlash could even be felt at home. Greeks have taken up violence in riots against their own government offices in recent years, so it is not too hard to imagine they might do the same to foreign businesses and interests (or foreigners) in Greece.

The biggest risk of all is what happens if Greece really does quit the euro. Would Italy or Spain then use the same threats? Would Greece threaten the balance of power in Europe by working with nations that are not friendly with Europe (beyond just Russia)?

One last risk is that all these shenanigans are just for show. Greece’s threats sure look like they either want out of all their obligations or they want out of the euro. The European responses also indicate that they at least partially want Greece to leave at this point. The real risk is that nobody may really care by the time whatever decision gets made.

ALSO READ: Dear Greece: Ireland Credit Rating Raised at S&P

CIA World Factbook Comments on Greece

Some economic watchers may have forgotten or overlooked just how long this has gone on. It has been ongoing, and the 2015 shenanigans are just one part of many ongoing issues in time. Below is the bulk of the description of Greece’s economy taken directly from the CIA World Factbook:

Greece is a major beneficiary of EU aid, equal to about 3.3% of annual GDP. The Greek economy averaged growth of about 4% per year between 2003 and 2007, but the economy went into recession in 2009 as a result of the world financial crisis, tightening credit conditions, and Athens’ failure to address a growing budget deficit. By 2013 the economy had contracted 26%, compared with the pre-crisis level of 2007.

Greece met the EU’s Growth and Stability Pact budget deficit criterion of no more than 3% of GDP in 2007-08, but violated it in 2009, with the deficit reaching 15% of GDP. Austerity measures reduced the deficit to about 4% in 2013, including government debt payments, but the deficit spiked to 12.7% of GDP in 2014. Deteriorating public finances, inaccurate and misreported statistics, and consistent underperformance on reforms prompted major credit rating agencies to downgrade Greece’s international debt rating in late 2009, and led the country into a financial crisis. Under intense pressure from the EU and international market participants, the government adopted a medium-term austerity program that includes cutting government spending, decreasing tax evasion, overhauling the health-care and pension systems, and reforming the labor and product markets. Athens, however, faced long-term challenges to continue pushing through unpopular reforms in the face of widespread unrest from the country’s powerful labor unions and the general public.

In April 2010, a leading credit agency assigned Greek debt its lowest possible credit rating, and in May 2010, the International Monetary Fund and Euro-Zone governments provided Greece emergency short- and medium-term loans worth $147 billion so that the country could make debt repayments to creditors. In exchange for the largest bailout ever assembled, the government announced combined spending cuts and tax increases totaling $40 billion over three years, on top of the tough austerity measures already taken. Greece, however, struggled to meet 2010 targets set by the EU and the IMF, especially after Eurostat – the EU’s statistical office – revised upward Greece’s deficit and debt numbers for 2009 and 2010.

European leaders and the IMF agreed in October 2011 to provide Athens a second bailout package of $169 billion. The second deal however, called for holders of Greek government bonds to write down a significant portion of their holdings. As Greek banks held a significant portion of sovereign debt, the banking system was adversely affected by the write down and $60 billion of the second bailout package was set aside to ensure the banking system was adequately capitalized. In exchange for the second loan, Greece promised to introduce an additional $7.8 billion in austerity measures during 2013-15. However, the massive austerity cuts have prolonged Greece’s economic recession and depressed tax revenues.

Greece’s lenders have continually called on Athens to step up efforts to increase tax collection, dismiss public servants, privatize public enterprises, and rein in health spending. Investor confidence, however, began to show signs of strengthening by the end of 2013, and the decline in GDP slowed to 3.9% that year, Greece’s best performance since 2009. Greece subsequently marked three significant milestones in 2014: balancing its 2013 budget—not including debt repayments; re-entering financial markets in April with the first issue of government debt since 2010; and posting its first quarter of positive growth since 2008.

Buoyed by Greece’s success, Prime Minister Antonios SAMARAS in October announced plans to exit its bailout program early, provoking a plunge in the Greek stock and debt markets that pushed Greece back to the negotiating table with its creditors and ultimately resulted in an agreement to extend the EU portion of Greece’s bailout through February 2015.

ALSO READ: The Happiest Countries in the World

Get Ready To Retire (Sponsored)

Start by taking a quick retirement quiz from SmartAsset that will match you with up to 3 financial advisors that serve your area and beyond in 5 minutes, or less.

Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests.

Here’s how it works:
1. Answer SmartAsset advisor match quiz
2. Review your pre-screened matches at your leisure. Check out the advisors’ profiles.
3. Speak with advisors at no cost to you. Have an introductory call on the phone or introduction in person and choose whom to work with in the future

Get started right here.

Thank you for reading! Have some feedback for us?
Contact the 24/7 Wall St. editorial team.