This might seem as though it would be a quiet week, if the markets can overlook Greece and Puerto Rico. The Fourth of July holiday has created a shortened week, and that means that the typical first-Friday unemployment and payrolls report will be released on Thursday morning. Still, this is likely to create a nearly unique situation in which unemployment is released at the same time as weekly jobless claims.
24/7 Wall St. wanted to address some of the key issues ahead of the formal unemployment report this week. The following consensus estimates are from Bloomberg, and they were as of Monday morning. In short, those estimates could change slightly by the time the formal reports are issued this week.
A first report this week will be the consumer confidence view for June. Bloomberg sees the Conference Board reporting 97.4, with a range of 94.5 to 99.0.
ADP will release its employment and payrolls report on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. Eastern Time. It is expected to show that there were 220,000 payrolls added in June. May’s number was 201,000. TrimTabs numbers also will be released, but economists still do not offer up much in terms of estimates for that report. ADP takes its data from ADP back office data of customers, and TrimTabs takes its data from daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from the paychecks of the millions U.S. workers subject to withholding.
Also on Wednesday will be a report on PMI Manufacturing at 9:45 a.m. and a report on ISM Manufacturing at 10:00 a.m. These both include employment data in them, but the component estimates are not generally there.
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Weekly jobless claims will come out from the U.S. Department of Labor at the same time as the Labor Department’s unemployment and payrolls report. These estimates are currently as follows:
- Jobless claims expected, 270K (versus 271K prior)
- Unemployment expected, 5.4% (versus 5.5% last month)
- Nonfarm payrolls expected, 230K (versus 280K last month)
- Private sector payrolls expected, 225K (versus 262K last month)
Stay tuned, and again do not forget that these estimates may change prior to each report.
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