Measuring a proper degree of how confident the public is at any given time is no simple business. It also depends on which group is doing the interviewing, as well as which group in the public is being surveyed. There is a marked difference in what is being expected ahead for prices, which plays into how much the Federal Reserve can raise interest rates.
In the past week or so, there has been the report on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan and a separate reading of CEO confidence from the Conference Board. One issue is a difference in timing, but the more obvious issue is that the surveys target different audiences.
The University of Michigan showed that consumer sentiment fell to 93.3 in the preliminary July report from 96.1 in June. The drop was due to lower readings in the current conditions component and in the expectations component, with the current component looking stronger than expectations. Consumer sentiment had been running strong for most of 2015, but international pressure from a Chinese stock market tank and the endless shenanigans in Greece seemed to be taking a toll.
The Conference Board’s measure of CEO confidence increased slightly in the second quarter, after having declined in the first quarter. That measure rose to 58 from 57 (with 50 being the breakeven barometer). Still, CEOs had dimmed their views on their outlook for China, while Brazil remained a negative point as well.
It was interesting to see that over two-thirds of CEOs expect profits will increase over the coming year, with demand growth, market growth and cost reductions being the major driving forces. Still, just 46% of CEOs surveyed claimed conditions are better compared to six months ago.
ALSO READ: 10 Cities Where Incomes Are Growing (and Shrinking) the Fastest
It was interesting to see that employers noted cost reductions as a driving force in their confidence numbers. The University of Michigan reading showed that consumer expectation on inflation was 2.8% over the next year and was 2.7% over the next five years. It seems that one of the groups has to be right and that one has to be wrong on their inflation targets.
Some economists and investors alike will wonder if there is even a correlation between CEO confidence and consumer sentiment. There is no easy answer there. Sometimes they coincide, sometimes they do not.
Travel Cards Are Getting Too Good To Ignore (sponsored)
Credit card companies are pulling out all the stops, with the issuers are offering insane travel rewards and perks.
We’re talking huge sign-up bonuses, points on every purchase, and benefits like lounge access, travel credits, and free hotel nights. For travelers, these rewards can add up to thousands of dollars in flights, upgrades, and luxury experiences every year.
It’s like getting paid to travel — and it’s available to qualified borrowers who know where to look.
We’ve rounded up some of the best travel credit cards on the market. Click here to see the list. Don’t miss these offers — they won’t be this good forever.
Thank you for reading! Have some feedback for us?
Contact the 24/7 Wall St. editorial team.
Latest from 24/7
Our expert who first called NVIDIA in 2009 is predicting 2025 will see a historic AI breakthrough.
You can follow him investing $500,000 of his own money on our top AI stocks for free.