Consumer Confidence Tanks in July

By Jon C. Ogg Updated Jul 31, 10:50AM EDT · Published Jul 28, 10:10AM EDT

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The Conference Board has released its Consumer Confidence reading for the month of July. Confidence came crashing down, likely overshadowed by market volatility from the risks of Greece, China, and rising interest rates. The Index fell a sharp 9 points to a reading of 90.9, down from 99.8 in June.

The reading compared to Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 99.6 and its prior reading was 101.4 for June. Economists were shown to have a range of 97 to 102 for this report.

As far as why this would have included China and Greece, the cutoff date for the preliminary results was July 16.

The Present Situation Index decreased moderately from 110.3 in June to 107.4 in July, while the Expectations Index declined sharply to 79.9 in July from the 92.8 reading in June. Additional component data was released as follows:

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions was somewhat less favorable in July. Those saying business conditions are “good” decreased from 26.1 percent to 24.2 percent — and those claiming business conditions are “bad” was virtually unchanged at 17.9 percent.
Consumers were slightly less positive about the job market. Those stating jobs are “plentiful” decreased from 21.3 percent to 20.7 percent and those claiming jobs are “hard to get” increased marginally from 26.1 percent to 26.7 percent.
Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook decreased sharply in July. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months declined from 17.9 percent to 14.7 percent, while those expecting business conditions to get worse rose from 10.2 percent to 10.7 percent.
The outlook for the labor market was less optimistic. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead decreased from 17.1 percent to 13.1 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased from 15.2 percent to 20.0 percent.
The proportion of consumers expecting growth in their income fell from 17.6 percent to 17.0 percent, and those expecting a decline increased slightly from 10.6 percent to 11.2 percent.

The Conference Board quote will highlight some of the risks here:

Consumer confidence declined sharply in July, following a gain in June. Consumers continue to assess current conditions favorably, but their short-term expectations deteriorated this month. A less optimistic outlook for the labor market, and perhaps the uncertainty and volatility in financial markets prompted by the situation in Greece and China, appears to have shaken consumers’ confidence. Overall, the Index remains at levels associated with an expanding economy and a relatively confident consumer.

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Unlike the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment reading from 500 households in the preliminary report (issued last week), the Conference Board (via Nielsen Co.) surveys 3,000 households each month from around the nation.

About the Author Jon C. Ogg →

Jon Ogg has been a financial news analyst since 1997. Mr. Ogg set up one of the first audio squawk box services for traders called TTN, which he sold in 2003. He has previously worked as a licensed broker to some of the top U.S. and E.U. financial institutions, managed capital, and has raised private capital at the seed and venture stage. He has lived in Copenhagen, Denmark, as well as New York and Chicago, and he now lives in Houston, Texas. Jon received a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance at University of Houston in 1992. a673b.bigscoots-temp.com.