If you were looking for a hope of recovering manufacturing and exports, chances are high that the August reading of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey is not going to be your friend. Still, it is one more number that might slow the urge of Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
The August reading showed that business activity declined for New York manufacturers, with the index falling a sharp 19 points to -14.9. If this sounds bad, it is even worse — this was the lowest level since 2009.
The new orders and shipments indexes also fell sharply. New orders fell 12 points to -15.7, and shipments fell a whopping 22 points to -13.8. The inventories index was down handily as well, falling to -17.3.
Indexes for the six-month outlook registered somewhat greater optimism than in July, with the future general business conditions index rising seven points to 33.6.
One thing that stood out here is that the price indexes showed that input prices were slightly higher, but selling prices were flat. The price component said:
Price increases remained subdued. The prices paid index was little changed at 7.3, continuing the pattern of modest input price increases seen in recent months. The prices received index fell to 0.9, indicating that selling prices were flat. Labor market indicators pointed to little change in employment and hours worked. The index for number of employees edged down one point to 1.8, and the average workweek index fell to -1.8.
Labor market indicators suggested that employment levels and hours worked were little changed.
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The unfilled orders index edged up three points to -4.5. The delivery time index fell to -4.6, indicating slightly shorter delivery times, and the inventories index fell nine points to -17.3, suggesting that inventory levels were significantly lower than last month.
Again, this is not one of those reports that will make growth-oriented business owners very happy. It is highly unusual to see a drop of this magnitude, almost as if orders and business just dried up. In many ways, this was an outright recessionary report.
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