The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank has released its regional Business Outlook Survey for the month of August, and it is looking far better than the recent Empire State manufacturing report from New York. The Philly reading came in at 8.3 in August, versus a consensus estimate of 7.5 from Bloomberg and even better than the 5.7 reading from July. Still, June’s reading was 15.2.
What should stand out here is that this index has hovered in a low range since the beginning of the current year. It is also well below the highs of late 2014.
Demand for manufactured goods is measured by the current new orders index, and this reading remains low — falling just over a point to 5.8 in August. The current shipments index rose by a sharp 12 points to 16.7.
The percentage of firms reporting an increase in employees in August exceeded the percentage reporting a decrease, 21% versus 16%. The corresponding diffusion index for current employment rose by six points to 5.3 in August. Firms reported modest increases in the workweek: The percentage of firms reporting a longer workweek (16%) was greater than the percentage reporting a shorter workweek (7%).
In the growth of exports, the firms reporting decreases outnumbered those reporting increases, at 23% versus 19%, producing a diffusion index of -4.2.
The Philly Fed report said:
The indicators for general activity are holding fairly steady and suggest modest growth. While firms reported increased shipments compared with the prior month, the current indicators for new orders and employment suggest steady conditions. The survey’s indicators of future activity predict a continuation of growth in the region’s manufacturing sector over the next six months.
Despite a strong report, equity markets remain weak and are giving back much of the prior day’s recovery. The S&P 500 was down over 26 points at 2,053 and the DJIA was down 223 at 17,125.
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