Can GDP Be Revised This Much Higher?

Economy

Published: August 26, 2015 11:10 am

Thursday morning is going to be an interesting reading for second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). This is the first revision for the second-quarter reading, and the preliminary report was shown to be up 2.3% on the headline GDP and up 2.0% on the GDP price index.

Bloomberg sees the consensus revisions coming up to 3.2% for the headline GDP report of the second quarter, and it sees the consensus being maintained at a gain of 2.0% for the GDP price index for the second quarter. Dow Jones, via the Wall Street Journal, is looking for the numbers to be revised to up 3.3% on the headline GDP and up 2% on the price index.

Of the formal estimates, there is a range of 2.7% to 3.6% on the headline GDP from economists. The range for the price index is more tight at 1.9% to 2.1%.

As a reminder, the Federal Reserve has been looking for evidence, unsuccessfully at that rate, for inflation to be in the range of 2.0% to 2.5% in order to help it raise interest rates. Again, that has thus far been unsuccessful.

One of the key reasons for a higher GDP revision is due to upward revisions in retail sales and a larger than expected building up of the business inventories reported for the month of June. Note that the June figures in durable goods were just revised higher as well, and that helps marginally for total GDP. Just keep in mind that the GDP report is said to be affected the most by consumer spending behavior, with close to a 70% weighting in GDP.

GDP revisions do not frequently move markets, but they have a key barometer on what economists and investors use for their annual GDP forecasts.

Politicos and market skeptics are likely to keep maintaining that the annualized GDP recovery from the recession has been the weakest post-recession recovery since before World War II.

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