It is the last Friday of the month, so we get to see the revised consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan. It is usually the case that revisions are not as impactful as the preliminary numbers, but that may not be the case this time. Just in the past two weeks extreme volatility and more uncertainty have come into the picture. That means that investors and economists will be weighing fresh data more than normal while they decide if the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.
The consumer sentiment reading was revised to 91.9 from the preliminary 92.9. Bloomberg had a consensus estimate of 93.3, with a range of 92.7 to 95.0. Dow Jones, via the Wall Street Journal, had its consensus estimate at 93.2 for the month. Needless to say, this was a disappointment.
This sentiment index has been gradually rolling lower from its highs earlier in the year. Still, the U.S. jobs market remains solid and consumers are being forced to spend less at the pump.
The current conditions figure was 105.1, but the index of consumer expectations was down at 83.4.
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Friday’s sentiment reading even addressed the notion that consumers might react to volatile stock prices. It said:
The Black Mondays of October 17, 1987 and August 24, 2015 represent two episodes when the stock market declined mainly due to reasons other than the domestic economy. Prior to each stock decline, the Sentiment Index was very positive, but immediately following, it fell by about 10%. Consumers quickly dismissed the 1987 episode since it didn’t involve their jobs or incomes, and today’s consumers hold similar favorable views about their job and income prospects. While this preliminary reading must be confirmed by additional data, there is every reason to expect continued growth. Overall, the data suggest that real personal consumption expenditures will expand by a still healthy 2.9% in 2015, with the pace of growth rising to 3.0% in 2016. Needless to say, consumer sentiment must be carefully monitored in the months ahead.
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