The Paychex/IHS Small Business Jobs Index is not a full preview of the key unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but some economists use it, similar to the ADP payrolls report, as a preliminary guide for directional bias. The Paychex/IHS report dropped by 0.17% in August. While this was negative, the small business job gains did continue at 0.48% faster than the base period 10 years ago.
The report also maintains that the overall trend remains positive. The National Index fell to 100.48, putting the national index 0.51% below last year and 0.36% below its 2015 peak in February.
The Regional Employment reading showed that eight of the nine regions declined in August, after seven of the nine regions improved in July. New England was the only region to grow in August, and only by 0.05%.
Here are some basic regional data at the metro level:
- Dallas continues to far outperform all the other metros with the best 12-month growth rate at 1.38% and an index level of 105.23.
- Detroit and San Diego have the next best 12-month growth rates and index levels, at 103.25 and 103.00, respectively.
- Two other California metro indices round out the top five: San Francisco and Riverside.
- Seattle and Tampa Bay gave up the most momentum in August, falling almost 1.00%.
- Houston rebounded 0.56% to boost its index back above 100. All the same, Houston has declined 2.81% over the past year, trailed only by Minneapolis at -3.22%.
Economists are still getting used to various Paychex data after having seen ADP data for years. The index was just launched on April 1, 2014.
The index analyzes same-store, year-over-year worker count changes to identify and track small business employment trends using real small business payroll data from the Paychex client base, and it is based on data from about 350,000 small businesses with fewer than 50 workers across the United States.
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