A pleasant surprise came earlier in October via a consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan. But it is not being echoed in the larger consumer confidence reading in October. What matters about the prior sentiment reading was that it elevated expectations that “confidence” may mirror the boost. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was October 15.

The Conference Board has released its Consumer Confidence Index, showing that a moderate increase seen in September actually dipped lower in October. The index fell to 97.6 in October from 102.6 in September, much lower than the consensus estimate of 102.5 from Bloomberg.

About the only good news here is that current conditions were actually worse than expectations. The Conference Board data showed the following:

• Present Situation Index decreased from 120.3 last month to 112.1 in October.
• Expectations Index edged down to 88.0 from 90.8 in September.

Other data inside the report was as follows:

• Those saying business conditions are “good” decreased from 28.1% to 26.5%.
• Those claiming business conditions are “bad” increased from 16.4% to 18.3%.
• Those stating jobs are “plentiful” decreased from 24.8% to 22.2%.
• Those claiming jobs are “hard to get” edged up to 25.8% from 24.9%.
• The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months was unchanged at 18.1%.
• Those expecting business conditions to worsen inched up to 10.6% from 10.4%.
• Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead declined moderately from 14.9% to 14.5%.
• Those anticipating fewer jobs increased from 15.9% to 16.9%.
• The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase declined from 18.7% to 18.0%.
• The proportion expecting a decline increased from 9.9% to 10.7%.

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Tuesday’s report from the Conference Board said:

Consumer confidence declined in October, following September’s modest gain. Consumers were less positive in their assessment of present-day conditions, in particular the job market, and were moderately less optimistic about the short-term outlook. Despite the decline, consumers still rate current conditions favorably, but they do not anticipate the economy strengthening much in the near-term.

About the only positive takeaway here would be that the current conditions are weighing down the report. Consumers seemed more optimistic for the months ahead, and that hopefully will translate into stronger sales ahead for the important holiday season.

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