Economy

Empire Manufacturing Shows Another Contraction in February

Jon C. Ogg

Published: February 16, 2016 9:20 am

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 1:09 pm

The New York Federal Reserve has released its Empire Manufacturing Survey for the month of February. Perhaps one of the few bits of good news here is that the contraction is by a lower amount than what was seen in January. Most of February’s report was in the red.

February’s index reading was -16.64 for the general business conditions. That is less bad than the -19.37 reading in January but is wider than the -10.0 that was listed as the Bloomberg consensus estimate. Econday’s range of estimates -16 to -7.5.

New orders came in at -11.63, and that makes nine months of contraction. Employment was -0.99, versus -13 in the prior month, and was the eighth consecutive contraction. The workweek was -5.94. Shipments were also in contraction at -11.56. Unfilled orders were -6.93.

One positive component was seen here, and it may be the one that matters the most: the six-month outlook was up over 4 points to 14.48 and there was a slight gain in input prices while finished goods was in the red.

The New York Fed’s summary said:

The February 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity continued to decline for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index edged up three points, but remained firmly in negative territory at -16.6. The new orders and shipments indexes indicated an ongoing decline in both orders and shipments. Price indexes suggested a slight increase in input prices and a small drop in selling prices. Employment levels steadied, while the average workweek index pointed to a decrease in hours worked. The six-month outlook remained weak, with the index for future general business conditions up only slightly from last month’s multi-year low.