Economy

Chance Clinton Will Be Nominee at 88%

Douglas A. McIntyre

Published: March 28, 2016 7:00 am

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 11:29 am

Despite the Bernie Sanders sweep of three states this weekend, Hillary Clinton still enjoys an 88% chance she will become the Democratic nominee.

ElectionBettingOdds.com, which tracks the probability a candidate will become the nominee, as well as which candidate will win the general election, has Clinton at 88.1% in the primary race. Sanders is at 10.2%, and Joe Biden has a small fraction.

Sanders clobbered Clinton in the contests in Hawaii, Alaska and Washington state. However, Clinton still has a massive lead in delegates at 1,243, against the 2,823 needed to win the nomination. Sanders has 974, which is why he grabs only the 10% probability of success.

The data beg the question of whether gamblers have a better grip on the election than political experts do. Probably no better, because so many pundits believe Sanders has such a little chance that he should drop out of the race and allow Clinton to focus on criticizing Donald Trump. Trump’s chances of becoming the Republican nominee are 70%, according to ElectionBettingOdds.com.

Even at 10%, Sanders appears willing to take his case to the convention, which is probably why Clinton’s odds are not closer to 100%.