The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index increased from 69.4 in the first quarter of this year to 73.5 in the second quarter, according to the latest survey released Wednesday morning. Expectations for sales, capital spending and hiring have improved slightly, but expectations for GDP growth have slipped.
The index remains below the historical average of 79.8, but solidly above 50, indicating continued economic expansion. In their third estimate of real GDP growth for 2016, CEOs in the survey expect growth of 2.1% for the year, down from an expected increase of 2.2% in the first quarter of 2016.
The sales expectations sub-index rose 0.8 points to 107.6, the capital spending sub-index rose 8.1 points to 68.8 and the hiring sub-index rose 3.5 points to 44.2.
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Caterpillar CEO Doug Oberhelman, who is also chairman of the Business Roundtable, said:
Increased plans for near-term sales, investment and hiring indicates modest economic improvement. But the CEO estimate for barely more than 2 percent GDP growth this year points to an economy that continues to perform below its potential. Unfortunately, it’s more of the same ‘one step forward, one step back’ we’ve been experiencing for a number of years now. We need sustained, healthy growth, which would be aided by enactment of pro-growth policies, such as ratifying the Trans-Pacific Partnership and updating our outdated tax system. Absent that, the U.S. economy will continue to be stuck in the slow lane.
The second-quarter 2016 survey was conducted between May 4 and May 25, 2016. Responses were received from 139 member CEOs.
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