If you ever wanted to see an economic report that makes you feel like the pundits were all full of delusion and hope rather than full of knowledge, look no further than preliminary second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report. The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that its first guess (yes, a guess) on GDP is that the rate was up a mere 1.2% from the second quarter of 2015.
Maybe America is supposed to just be happy that GDP is up at all when the rest of the world is sucking wind and suffering with negative interest rates. The problem here is that GDP was expected to be much higher, and this, along with the low rate of the first quarter, will make GDP growth more likely now to be under 2.0% for the whole year. The first quarter’s GDP report was revised to 0.8%.
Here is why you need to worried about the second quarter’s low growth reading. Bloomberg, Dow Jones and Reuters had the headline GDP estimate all the way up at 2.6%.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 1.9% in the second quarter, versus only 0.3% in the first. The core-PCE (excluding food and energy) rose by 1.7% in the second quarter, versus a 2.1% gain in the first.
The Commerce Department did, as usual, emphasize that the second quarter’s estimate is the advanced number and is based on incomplete data. This report will be revised, and this could swing lower or could rise. The first revision will be reported on August 26, 2016.
Brexit was hardly worth noting because it was unexpected and took place in the final days of the second quarter. The low increase in real GDP showed positive contributions from PCE and exports, partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment and state and local government spending.
One interesting observance is that imports decreased despite a strong dollar. Imports act as a subtraction in the calculation of GDP.
Here are the core readings that need to be parsed out for future adjustments to this number:
- Current-dollar GDP increased 3.5%, or $155.9 billion, to a level of $18.4376 trillion.
- In the first quarter, current dollar GDP rose by 1.3%, or just $58.9 billion.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases increased by 2.0% in the second quarter, versus an increase of 0.2% in the first quarter.
- Current-dollar personal income increased $111.4 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $52.8 billion in the first quarter. This was driven by gains in wages and salaries, personal dividend income, and farm proprietors’ income, and they were offset by slowdowns in personal current transfer receipts.
- Disposable personal income increased $106.3 billion, or 3.1%, in the second quarter, versus an increase of $83.4 billion, or 2.5%, in the first.
- Personal saving was $763.1 billion in the second quarter, versus $847.8 billion in the first quarter (and the personal saving rate as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 5.5% in the second quarter versus 6.1% in the first.
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