Economy

Forecast for $1 Billion in 53 Days of Online Holiday Sales

Douglas A. McIntyre

Published: October 29, 2016 10:00 am

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 1:45 am

Some of the key takeaways from the Adobe 2016 Digital Insights Shopping Predictions and Mobile Retail Trends Report:

Extended holiday season: 53 consecutive days (57 total) that will each exceed $1B in online sales (vs. 31 consecutive days in ’15)

• Total online sales to grow 11% YoY to $91.6B – with $8.4B expected in just 3 days (Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday, Cyber Monday)
• Cyber Monday will be largest online shopping day of all time ($3.36B, +9.4% YoY)
• Black Friday sales to reach $3.05B (+11.3% YoY); Thanksgiving Day ($2B, +15.6% YoY)

And:

Mobile overtakes desktop for first time, but sales fall short

• Mobile devices will exceed desktop shopping visits (53% vs. 47%), but poor mobile experiences will only drive 34% of sales (19% gap between visits and purchases)
• Thanksgiving Day, Christmas will be biggest mobile retail days of the year (59% and 66% of visits)
• Cyber Monday will see 49% in mobile visits (+10% YoY)
• Average order value on desktops ($155) outperforms smartphones ($120) by $35 per order (from mobile retail insights press release)
• During the holidays, 30% of shopping carts will result in an order on desktops vs. 19% of carts on smartphones
• Desktops remain cash cow for retailers driving 75% of total revenue with 59% of traffic vs. smartphones driving only 16% percent of total revenue with 32% of traffic (from mobile retail insights press release)

Finally:

5% of shoppers will drive 35% of online sales ($38.5B) for average retailer

• Consumers will be able to save up to 20% for same products across online retailers if they price shop
• Expected most desired gifts: VR devices, Pokémon, Barbie, Lego, Hot Wheels, Frozen toys, Google Home, and Amazon Echo
• Consumers likely to find best deals via display advertising (29%), social media (14%) and email (13%)