Two things about Hurricane Michael seem clear as it heads toward the easternmost part of Florida. It will land as a vivacious Category 3 storm, and it will hit an area that is not heavily populated. Even though there is no large city in the area, 57,000 homes are at risk.

Research firm CoreLogic reports that the replacement value of the endangered homes could reach $13 billion, based on their calculation of reconstruction cost value. That, in turn, is based on the total destruction of the homes in the forecast.

The area expected to be hit hardest is the city of Crestview, Florida. Home damage may hit just over 29,000 there. Next in terms of damage, Panama City, Florida, where just over 20,000 homes are at risk. Finally, state capital Tallahassee has just over 7,000 homes at risk. The majority of the damage will come from storm surge.

Methodology: CoreLogic offers high-resolution location information solutions with a view of hazard and vulnerability consistent with the latest science for more realistic risk differentiation. The high-resolution storm surge modeling using 10m digital elevation model and parcel-based geocoding precision from PxPoint facilitates this realistic view of risk. Single-family residential structures less than four stories, including mobile homes, duplexes, manufactured homes and cabins (among other non-traditional home types) are included in this analysis. This is not an indication that there will be no damage to other types of structures, as there may be associated wind or debris damage that is not tabulated in this release.

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