Economy

Will China's 1.4 Billion People Be Locked Down?

Douglas A. McIntyre

Published: January 30, 2020 6:15 am

As travel to and from China, and more aggressively to and from some of its largest cities, becomes more restrictive, the nation’s 1.437 billion people could find themselves basically locked down within their own borders. What was inconceivable just a week ago has become possible. Anxiety about the coronavirus outbreak has become nearly a panic, both inside and outside China.

Nearly 60 million people are trapped in the geographic area that includes one of China’s largest cities, Wuhan, and the Hubei province around it. Travel from the area has become nearly impossible. Travel rules that control movement around the rest of the nation continue to tighten. Holidays have been extended, businesses closed and even activity in China’s largest cities, which include Shanghai, have started to be curtailed. Shanghai Disneyland is closed. So is the Forbidden City in Beijing.

Just as telling, a growing number of global carriers have essentially cut travel to China. China’s residents are close to being trapped if they want to go overseas. Residents of other nations are being evacuated, and those evacuations are growing.

Retail outlets across the nation have been shuttered. Among the most notable for Americans are half of the Starbucks locations in China.

The World Health Organization has said the spread is of “grave concern.” If it calls a full-on global health emergency, the isolation of China will step up to what could be an almost complete level.

The trigger of this nearly complete isolation of China will tip on the spread of the coronavirus. Nearly 7,800 people have the disease and 170 have died. Although the figure seems modest, people can have the disease for nearly two weeks before they have symptoms. They can infect others for almost that entire time. Some experts expect the spread to rise into the tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of people, and that the number of deaths will soar.

Further panic has been caused by the spread beyond China’s borders and the certainty that these infected people came from China. The coronavirus has infected people in the United States, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Australia, Malaysia, Macau, France, South Korea, Germany, United Arab Emirates, Canada, Vietnam, India, the Philippines, Nepal, Cambodia, Sri Lanka and Finland at the least. If China’s borders are essentially shut, it will not end the spread, but it will certainly curtail it.

There is no precedent for a nation to isolate itself. China’s government, and pressure from the rest of the world, could force it.