The Morning Consult index of consumer sentiment ended its string of gains last week with a dip in consumer confidence. As of February 2, the consumer index score was 113.9, down from 114.5 at the end of the prior week.
The index is based on the firm’s daily survey of some 7,500 U.S. adults and is higher than it was at this time last year. The 52-week low of 107.0 was posted on August 26, 2019, and the 52-week high of 114.8 was set on December 30.
The gap between the index’s component scores narrowed slightly in the week ending February, with the future expectations score falling by 0.9 points to 114.5 and the current conditions score sliding by 0.2 points to 113.1.
According to Morning Consult, “As the coronavirus continued to spread over the last week, U.S. consumers registered a small but significant decrease in consumer confidence. … Americans are more concerned about the virus’ effects on the global and U.S. economies than on their own local economies.”
Morning Consult asks the same questions of its survey respondents as does the University of Michigan’s twice-monthly Survey of Consumers. The difference is in the number and method of the survey. The Michigan sentiment index is based on 600 telephone interviews with U.S. adults while Morning Consult’s results are based on an ongoing survey comprising 7,500 daily interviews and 210,000 monthly interviews, all conducted online.
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The survey breaks down the data it collects by some key demographic groups. Here are some of the results of that breakdown.
Households with income of less than $50,000 annually posted an overall sentiment score of 108.1 last week, down 0.6 points from the previous week. Among households with income between $150,000 and $200,000, the overall score rose by 0.3 points to 129.5, while overall sentiment among households with incomes between $200,000 and $250,000 tumbled by 4.6 index points to post a score of 125.0. Households with incomes over $250,000 posted a drop of 4.2 index points to 139.8.
By industry sector, Americans employed in the professional and business services sector posted a drop of 3.1 points to 118.2, while the educational services sector dropped 3.0 points to 112.9. Oddly, perhaps, Americans employed in the transportation sector posted a gain of 2.4 points to 127.2.
Sentiment in the agriculture industry fell last week, down 5.9 points to lower the industry’s index reading to 123.8.
Top executives in businesses of all sizes posted a 0.9 point gain in overall sentiment last week, raising the index score to 124.7. Executives from businesses with 21 to 100 employees registered a 4.6-point drop in overall sentiment, posting an index score of 126.3, while top executives of companies with more than 100 employees posted an increase of 5.0 points to lift their index score to 154.4.
Looking at responses to questions about future economic conditions, top executives of companies with more than 100 employees posted an index score of 154.0, up by 4.3 points week over week. At companies with one to five employees, executives lowered the score by 0.3 points to 122.5.
Company executives’ opinion of current economic conditions rose by 1.8 points last week, with the index score increasing to 122.1. CEOs of companies with six to 20 employees were the most optimistic, raising their index score by 6.9 points to 127.9.
On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will be reporting its monthly employment data for the month of January. Economists are expecting nonfarm payrolls to have added 153,000 jobs in January while 6,000 manufacturing jobs were lost. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.5%.
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