The World Trade Organization (WTO) warned that the economy, based on world merchandise trade slowed toward the end of last year. Its researchers warned that the outbreak of COVID-19 are not accounted for in their figures—yet.

The organization’s researchers reported that its Goods Trade Barometer is currently at 95.5 which is below trend. The trend line for expansion/contraction is 100. In November, the number was 96.6, which is still enough to create anxiety.

The final global trade number for the third quarter of last year was down .2% from the year before.

Commenting on the trend:

The Goods Trade Barometer provides information on the current trajectory of world merchandise trade relative to recent trends, based on best-available forward-looking data. It does not account for recent developments such as the outbreak of COVID-19, the new coronavirus disease, which may dampen trade prospects further.

Other signals are flashing red. The Japan Cabinet Office says that GDP for the world’s third largest economy fell 6.3% in final quarter of last year.  Germany’s economy did not grow at all in the fourth quarter. Some experts believe that the spread of COVID-19 will cut China GDP growth to zero in the current quarter.

Most of the news issued in the last few days about the global economy and GDP in the world’s largest nations has been bad.

 

 

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