Not a large fraction, or even a majority. 100% of the economists at the widely regarded NABE (National Association of Business Economists) say the U.S. is already in a recession–a very rare consensus.

The 45 economists who are members of the association were polled from April 3 to April 7. The NABE Outlook Survey was first released in 1965. NABE President Constance Hunter, CBE, chief economist, KPMG, said “NABE Outlook Survey panelists believe that the U.S. economy is already in recession and will remain in a contractionary state for the first half of 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic severely restricts economic activity. The consensus is real GDP declined at an annualized rate of 2.4% in the first quarter of 2020, and will shrink at an annualized rate of 26.5% in the second quarter”

The group was more optimistic than many other financial experts as it looked at the second half of the year. As the spread of the pandemic eases, they expect GDP growth to be 2% in the third quarter of 2020, 5.8% in the fourth, and 6% in the first quarter of 2010. The group pointed out that there was little agreement among the group on the exact figure in the forecast.

The median figure for the unemployment rate among those polled was 12% in the second quarter. This is worse than the 10% in October 2009, the depth of The Great Recession. The median expectation for unemployment at the end of this year is 9.5% and 6% by the end of next year.

The reason for a lack of consensus is almost certainly based on how much of the economy will be “reopen” and how soon. Many medical experts believe that if the economy is open too soon, the infection will begin to spread again, and U.S. deaths will rise back into the tens of thousands in the latter part of this year.

More than most NABE forecasts, the current one can be characterized as a guess.

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