Economy

This Is The Fastest Shrinking Local Economy In America

Douglas A. McIntyre

Published: March 13, 2022 8:21 am

The American economy has exploded into a period of rapid growth after the short recession caused by the early effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Unemployment was 3.8% in February. GDP in the fourth quarter rose an extremely large 6.9%. Several key indicators like real estate sales and prices have been robust.

However, not all parts of the American economy have shared in the riches. This can be screened by country, city, or state. To determine the fastest shrinking local economies nationwide, 24/7 Wall St. calculated the change in real GDP from 2014 to 2019 for every U.S. county or county-equivalent with data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The counties listed here experienced the most crippling economic contractions — of between 28% and 51%.

When economies contract, so too does the availability of jobs and potential for local economic mobility. This can lead to population declines over an extended period of time as younger residents leave to pursue greener job pastures. Many of the U.S. counties with the fastest shrinking local economies are typically small and rural. For example, Mora County, New Mexico, and Martin County, Kentucky, are both home to fewer than 1,000 residents.

The fastest shrinking local U.S. economies we reviewed also include Boone County, West Virginia, a coal industry-dependent community of 22,368 people that has seen a gradual decline in jobs since the Great Recession. There are about 2,200 fewer jobs in Boone than there were at its last peak in July 2008, and it has yet to recover jobs lost to the pandemic-related recession of 2020. Its GDP shrank by nearly 43% from 2014 to 2019.

With a population of 133,195, Tazewell County, Illinois, is one of the more populated counties we considered. It has about 2,300 fewer employed persons today than it had prior to the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns. Like Boone County, Tazewell experienced a gradual reduction of employed people — a trend that began during the Great Recession. Its GDP contracted by nearly half from 2014 to 2019.

The fastest shrinking local economy in America is Wheeler, Texas. Here are the details:

> GDP change 2014-2019: -50.56% (state: 18.02%)
> 2019 county GDP: $944 million (state: $1,863,954 million)
> Unemployment change 2014-2019, county: -0.60 ppt (3.60% to 3.00%)
> Median household income: $49,315 (state: $61,874)
> Population: 5,338
> Largest place in county: Shamrock

Methodology: To determine the fastest shrinking local economy nationwide, 24/7 Wall St. calculated the change in real GDP from 2014 to 2019 for every U.S. county or county-equivalent with data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. GDP figures are chained to 2012 dollars.

Average annual unemployment rates for 2019 and 2014 came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data on population and median household income are five-year estimates for 2019 and are from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. The largest place in the county is based on population ACS population estimates and places can include cities, towns, villages, and census-designated places.

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