Hurricane Ian, now a Category 3 storm, could slam Tampa as a storm at least that strong. It would be the most powerful storm to hit the region in over a century. The destructive effect of the storm on homes in the region may be a record $258 billion, which does not include damage to other structures.
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Ian has strengthened quickly and almost certainly will destroy part of Cuba. The storm is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico. The water there has been heated over several decades by the effects of global warming. This phenomenon has made hurricanes more ferocious and deadly.
CoreLogic, the real estate research firm, has analyzed the danger to homes in the area. It puts the reconstruction value of homes damaged in south Florida at $258.3 billion. This is based on potential damage to 1,044,412 single and multifamily homes if the storm makes landfall as a Category 4 storm.
Dr. Tom Jeffery, senior hazard scientist at CoreLogic, commented, “Hurricane Ian has all the ingredients you need for a bad storm surge event.” Much of this damage would be due to a storm surge over 10 feet.
Most of the damage would be in two cities. The number of homes at risk in Tampa is 397,090. In Fort Myers, the figure is 226,785.
Experts believe that each new hurricane season will produce more powerful storms. There is no indication that the warming of the oceans will slow or that the effect on hurricanes will lessen.
Tampa is by no means the only part of the United States at massive risk for property damage. The east coast of Florida has been hit by highly dangerous storms more than the west coast. The huge metro of Miami has a larger population than Tampa. Storms on the eastern seaboard hammer coastal areas as far north as coastal Canada. And the area where storms have done their worst damage stretches along the Gulf Coast, with a history of overwhelming New Orleans.
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