Can Donald Trump unseat Joe Biden as President of the United States? According to several polls, he might. RealClearPolitics published the results from research done by Emerson. Trump would get 47% of the vote in the 2024 national election. Biden would get 42%. Throw in RFK, Jr., and Biden gets an edge. However, presidential elections are not won nationally. They are won state by state and often because of the quirks of the Electoral College. Based on a recent study, Trump could take some states that Biden cannot afford to lose. These are the best and worst candidates for 2024.
The Hill reports that “Arizona, Nevada and Georgia are shaping up to be particularly tough contests as his poll numbers drop with once-reliable constituencies including Black, Latino, and young voters.” The Hill’s experts also said Biden should worry about states in his corner during the 2020 election, particularly Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The Hill analysis shows that Biden’s biggest problem in Arizona is that RFK Jr. has reasonably solid support among a modest number of voters. Most of that support draws from what were once people likely to vote for Biden.
Nevada is a very different problem. Biden is polling behind Trump, no matter who else is on the ballot.
Georgia is a challenge for Biden based on two issues. The first is that voter rights in Georgia probably favor Trump. The other is close to unbelievable. Charges against Trump for election interference in 2020 have not hurt his standing.
The Hill considers Pennsylvania to be Biden’s home state. Although he has lived in Delaware for decades, he was born in Scranton. Usually, home-field advantage helps a candidate. In Biden’s case, the figures show otherwise.
Biden’s problem in Michigan is very specific, according to The Hill. Michigan has a large Arab-American population. Biden’s stance on the conflict between Hamas and Israel has hurt him with these voters.
Finally, the strangest problem Biden faces is in Wisconsin. If he runs against Trump, his chances are reasonable. With Trump off the ticket, a Marquette University Law School poll has Biden losing by 9% to Nikki Haley, the only Republican who has started to poll well against Trump.
Biden’s major problem is that he has different challenges in different states.
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