As Prices Rise, These States Are the Least Prepared for a Recession

Historically, the American economy has shown to be strong and resilient, often outperforming other nations regarding the growth in gross domestic product, or GDP. However, GDP growth rates are varied across the 50 states, and in some places, economic growth has been sluggish, relative to the national average.

States with sluggish economic growth, even during a strong economy, are less prepared than others to weather the upcoming economic downturn. The Trump Administration’s tariff policy has resulted in uncertainty among Americans, with 45% of Americans believing there will be a recession in the next year. President Trump recently suggested that Americans should buy less as the prices of goods rise due to increased tariffs. On Sunday, May 4, 2025, Trump said during an NBC interview that American children should have fewer toys and school supplies: “I’m just saying they don’t need to have 30 dolls,” he said. “They can have three. They don’t need to have 250 pencils. They can have five.” This is a turnaround from his campaign message when Trump promised to bring down the price of groceries and other products on “Day One” of his presidency.

Rising prosperity has not been equally distributed across the country, and in some states, economic growth has been frustratingly slow. How will these states fare during an economic downturn? 24/7 Wall St. identified the 25 states with the slowest economic growth using data from the BEA. We ranked states on their real GDP growth rate from 2022 to 2023. To account for inflation, economic output figures used in this calculation are chained to 2017 dollars. We also reviewed changes in personal income from 2022 to 2023 and the current industry-level contribution to GDP with data from the BEA. Supplemental data on population, used to calculate personal income per capita, are one-year estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2022 and 2023 American Community Surveys.

(This article was updated on May 9, 2025, to reflect recent economic news regarding remarks made by President Trump on the rising prices of consumer goods.)

Why It Matters Right Now

Year-over-year change in gross domestic product, or GDP, is perhaps the most comprehensive indicator of the health of any economy. GDP growth generally benefits households, businesses, and governments. While American GDP growth outpaced that of many of its peers on the world stage in 2023, many states have reported sluggish growth rates that more closely resemble some European economies. If the country is heading for a slowdown, states already experiencing sluggish growth may be less prepared to deal with economic hardship.

Here are the 25 states with the slowest economic growth:

25. Nevada

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +2.6% (+$4.9 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $195.4 billion (0.9% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $190.5 billion (0.9% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +6.6% (+$13.1 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: +0.52% (+16,404 people)
Total population in 2023: 3,267,467
Personal income per capita: $66,238 in 2023, $62,460 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+1.1 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Accommodation and food services (-0.48 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

24. Mississippi

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +2.6% (+$3.0 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $119.5 billion (0.5% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $116.6 billion (0.5% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +5.4% (+$7.4 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: -0.01% (-367 people)
Total population in 2023: 2,939,690
Personal income per capita: $49,652 in 2023, $47,116 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting (+1.9 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Nondurable goods manufacturing (-0.26 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

23. Pennsylvania

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +2.5% (+$19.9 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $799.2 billion (3.5% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $779.4 billion (3.5% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +5.3% (+$45.3 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: -0.08% (-10,325 people)
Total Population in 2023: 12,961,683
Personal income per capita: $68,945 in 2023, $65,401 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+1.04 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Construction (-0.05 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

22. Arkansas

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +2.4% (+$3.3 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $142.9 billion (0.6% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $139.6 billion (0.6% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +4.9% (+$8.3 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: +0.73% (+22,095 people)
Total population in 2023: 3,067,732
Personal income per capita: $57,635 in 2023, $55,337 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting (+2.76 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Construction (-0.2 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

21. Oregon

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +2.3% (+$5.9 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $262.0 billion (1.2% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $256.1 billion (1.2% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +5.7% (+$15.4 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: -0.16% (-6,779 people)
Total population in 2023: 4,233,358
Personal income per capita: $67,838 in 2023, $64,095 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+0.95 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting (-0.54 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

20. New Hampshire

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +2.2% (+$2.1 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $93.5 billion (0.4% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $91.4 billion (0.4% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +5.7% (+$6.0 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: +0.49% (+6,823 people)
Total population in 2023: 1,402,054
Personal income per capita: $78,944 in 2023, $75,030 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+1.28 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Construction (-0.1 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

19. Kentucky

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +2.1% (+$4.7 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $224.4 billion (1.0% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $219.8 billion (1.0% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +5.4% (+$12.8 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: +0.31% (+13,844 people)
Total population in 2023: 4,526,154
Personal income per capita: $55,360 in 2023, $52,696 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+0.96 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services (-0.06 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

18. New Jersey

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +2.1% (+$13.7 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $663.9 billion (2.9% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $650.2 billion (3.0% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +5.9% (+$42.8 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: +0.31% (+29,142 people)
Total population in 2023: 9,290,841
Personal income per capita: $82,103 in 2023, $77,737 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+1.12 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Construction (-0.13 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

17. Ohio

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +2.1% (+$14.6 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $709.8 billion (3.1% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $695.3 billion (3.2% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +5.6% (+$38.1 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: +0.25% (+29,877 people)
Total population in 2023: 11,785,935
Personal income per capita: $61,495 in 2023, $58,409 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+0.98 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Finance and insurance (-0.41 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

16. California

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +2.0% (+$64.6 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $3.2 trillion (14.3% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $3.2 trillion (14.4% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +5.4% (+$162.3 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: -0.16% (-64,149 people)
Total population in 2023: 38,965,193
Personal income per capita: $81,255 in 2023, $76,963 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+1.11 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting (-0.32 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

15. Hawaii

Waikiki, Honolulu (BY 2.0) by Edmund Garman

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +2.0% (+$1.7 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $88.6 billion (0.4% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $86.9 billion (0.4% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +5.5% (+$4.9 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: -0.35% (-5,058 people)
Total population in 2023: 1,435,138
Personal income per capita: $66,176 in 2023, $62,529 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+1.19 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Construction (-0.17 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

14. Michigan

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +1.9% (+$10.5 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $554.3 billion (2.4% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $543.7 billion (2.5% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +5.4% (+$31.7 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: +0.03% (+3,143 people)
Total population in 2023: 10,037,261
Personal income per capita: $61,144 in 2023, $58,004 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+1.13 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services (-0.2 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

13. Georgia

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +1.9% (+$12.5 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $678.2 billion (3.0% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $665.7 billion (3.0% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +5.6% (+$35.2 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: +1.07% (+116,351 people)
Total population in 2023: 11,029,227
Personal income per capita: $59,882 in 2023, $57,292 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+1.06 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting (-0.49 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

12. Tennessee

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +1.8% (+$7.6 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $422.1 billion (1.9% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $414.5 billion (1.9% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +6.3% (+$26.1 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: +1.07% (+75,150 people)
Total population in 2023: 7,126,489
Personal income per capita: $62,229 in 2023, $59,190 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+1.5 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services (-0.21 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

11. Minnesota

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +1.6% (+$6.2 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $390.9 billion (1.7% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $384.7 billion (1.7% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +4.2% (+$16.9 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: +0.36% (+20,731 people)
Total population in 2023: 5,737,915
Personal income per capita: $72,557 in 2023, $69,868 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+1.0 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting (-0.62 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

10. Rhode Island

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +1.6% (+$998.0 million)
State GDP in 2023: $63.3 billion (0.3% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $62.3 billion (0.3% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +5.1% (+$3.6 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: +0.20% (+2,228 people)
Total population in 2023: 1,095,962
Personal income per capita: $67,563 in 2023, $64,412 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+1.14 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Construction (-0.23 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

9. Maryland

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +1.6% (+$6.5 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $422.9 billion (1.9% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $416.4 billion (1.9% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +6.0% (+$26.2 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: +0.25% (+15,593 people)
Total population in 2023: 6,180,253
Personal income per capita: $75,391 in 2023, $71,333 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+0.97 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Construction (-0.17 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

8. New York

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +1.5% (+$26.1 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $1.8 trillion (7.9% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $1.8 trillion (8.0% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +5.7% (+$86.5 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: -0.54% (-105,935 people)
Total population in 2023: 19,571,216
Personal income per capita: $82,323 in 2023, $77,486 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+0.73 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Finance and insurance (-0.26 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

7. Wisconsin

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +1.4% (+$4.8 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $344.6 billion (1.5% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $339.7 billion (1.5% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +5.2% (+$18.9 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: +0.31% (+18,416 people)
Total population in 2023: 5,910,955
Personal income per capita: $64,976 in 2023, $61,971 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting (+1.18 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Accommodation and food services (-0.07 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

6. Vermont

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +1.4% (+$484.0 million)
State GDP in 2023: $35.2 billion (0.2% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $34.8 billion (0.2% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +5.3% (+$2.2 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: +0.06% (+400 people)
Total population in 2023: 647,464
Personal income per capita: $66,932 in 2023, $63,629 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+1.39 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Construction (-0.19 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

5. Indiana

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +1.3% (+$5.0 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $404.3 billion (1.8% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $399.3 billion (1.8% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +4.3% (+$17.3 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: +0.43% (+29,162 people)
Total population in 2023: 6,862,199
Personal income per capita: $61,243 in 2023, $58,966 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+1.17 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (+0 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

4. Massachusetts

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +1.2% (+$7.5 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $615.5 billion (2.7% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $608.1 billion (2.8% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +5.4% (+$32.4 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: +0.28% (+19,425 people)
Total population in 2023: 7,001,399
Personal income per capita: $90,596 in 2023, $86,209 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+0.76 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Utilities (-0.38 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

3. Delaware

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +1.1% (+$865.0 million)
State GDP in 2023: $78.0 billion (0.3% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $77.1 billion (0.4% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +5.8% (+$3.8 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: +1.33% (+13,494 people)
Total population in 2023: 1,031,890
Personal income per capita: $66,850 in 2023, $64,030 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting (+1.42 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Finance and insurance (-0.17 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

2. Illinois

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +1.0% (+$9.1 billion)
State GDP in 2023: $885.7 billion (3.9% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $876.5 billion (4.0% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +5.1% (+$43.9 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: -0.26% (-32,343 people)
Personal income per capita: $72,245 in 2023, $68,568 in 2022
Total population in 2023: 12,549,689
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+1.0 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting (-0.81 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)

1. Iowa

GDP growth in state, 2022-2023: +0.2% (+$471.0 million)
State GDP in 2023: $202.1 billion (0.9% of US economy)
State GDP in 2022: $201.6 billion (0.9% of US economy)
Change in personal income, 2022-2023: +2.2% (+$4.3 billion)
Population change, 2022-2023: +0.20% (+6,487 people)
Total population in 2023: 3,207,004
Personal income per capita: $62,779 in 2023, $61,559 in 2022
Largest driver of economic growth in mid-2024: Retail trade (+1.15 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)
Largest drag on economic growth in mid-2024: Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting (-2.37 ppts. to GDP from Q2 to Q3 2024)