Exxon or Chevron: Is Either a Value Play?

The price for crude delivery in December 2016 fell below $80 a barrel earlier this year. The importance of that number is that it underscores a $15 a barrel dip in crude prices over the past two years. Big oil firms like Exxon and Chevron depend on crude for the bulk of their revenues and profits, and if crude prices are going to be under pressure for some time to come, then prospects for big oil producers are somewhat dim.

At the end of December, Exxon stock was up nearly 22% over the past three years, and Chevron stock was up almost 30%. Since the beginning of the year, Exxon stock is down more than 11% and Chevron stock is down more than 12%. Is this an opportunity or a trap?

Exxon shares closed at $90.02 on Tuesday night, and the consensus analyst price target of around $99.70 indicates a potential upside of nearly 11%. Shares have traded in a range of $84.79 to $101.74 over the past year. With a fiscal year 2015 earnings per share estimate of $7.73, the stock is valued at nearly 12 times next year’s expected earnings.

Chevron stock closed at $110.83 Tuesday. The consensus analyst price target of around $129.80 indicates a potential upside of about 17%. Shares have traded in a range of $109.47 to $127.83 over the past 12 months. With a fiscal year 2015 earnings per share estimate of $11.14, shares are valued at just under 10 times 2015’s expected earnings.

Earnings per share estimates for both companies have dropped since November, but Chevron has taken the bigger hit, very likely because the company said that 2014 would be the year that capital spending for two LNG projects in Australia would reach its peak.

Warren Buffett’s $3.5 billion investment in Exxon gave the stock a boost when it was first revealed, and it is pretty certain that by now Buffett has taken a loss. He will wait it out, but other investors who follow his lead on which stocks to buy may not be willing to stick to his buy-and-hold strategy in this case.

When we first looked at these two companies in November, we concluded that Chevron offered a better value play going forward. That continues to be the case, but the gap is narrower primarily because Chevron’s capex spending in 2014 likely will take a bigger bite than many observers expect due to lower crude prices and ever-rising costs.