It is a virtual certainty that oil companies will spend less on capital projects in 2015 than they did in 2014. The world’s two largest privately held integrated oil companies, Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), have not yet revealed their proposed spending and production levels for this year, but they are also expected to spend less as low crude oil prices drag down profits. Neither firm wants to tinker with dividends, and both would like to keep stock prices from falling off the edge of the earth. It may turn out to be harder than it looks.

According to analysts at Wood Mackenzie, if oil prices remain around $60 a barrel, the world’s top 40 oil companies would need to cut capital spending by 37% — $170 billion — to keep net debt flat. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at around $52.30 Friday morning.

Through the first three-quarters of the 2014 fiscal year, Exxon has reported capital spending of about $24.1 billion. Chevron has reported spending $25.7 billion. For all of 2013, Exxon spent $42.5 billion and Chevron spent $40.0 billion.

Last March Chevron said it would increase production from 2.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2013 to 3.1 million barrels by 2017. The expansion would come from its Tengizchevroil consortium, deepwater and shale production and more liquefied natural gas (LNG). The company’s capital spending peaked in 2013 and was forecast at $35.8 billion in 2014.

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In early December the company said it would delay announcing its 2015 capex budget until early 2015 because it was still reviewing and evaluating its plans for the year. Some of Chevron’s cuts will come from divestment as it works on shaving $10 billion in assets by 2016. But as crude prices fall — and energy prices in general go lower as a result — the company’s assets are worth less, and it may decide to wait to divest more until values start rising again.

Exxon lowered its expected production last March, from a prior estimate of 4.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2017 to 4.3 million barrels. In October the company said it was sticking with its previous estimate of a bit less than $37 billion in capital spending for 2015 through 2017.

Both companies have reached the end of large investments in massive projects and capital spending declines were anticipated. The 46% decline in crude oil prices in 2014 was not, and that is why the two giants are reevaluating their plans.

Exxon’s shares closed at $92.45 on Wednesday, and the consensus analyst price target of around $97.68 indicates a potential upside of about 5.7%. Shares have traded in a range of $86.19 to $104.76 over the past year. With a fiscal year 2015 earnings per share estimate of $5.68, the stock is valued at more than 16 times next year’s expected earnings.

Chevron stock closed at $112.18 Wednesday, and the consensus analyst price target is $122.74, indicating a potential upside of about 9.4%. Shares have traded in a range of $100.15 to $135.10 over the past 12 months. With a fiscal year 2015 earnings per share estimate of $7.24, shares are valued at more than 15 times 2015’s expected earnings.

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The available data that could determine if either of these stocks is a good value play is stale. When they reveal their capital spending plans for the new year is when we will find out what their outlook for 2015 really is. Stay tuned.

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