Now that oil has fallen from over $100 to under $50, and come back closer to $60, many long-term investors are looking for oversold value among the best oil and gas stocks to buy. The reality is that oil’s drop caught even the most bearish investors by surprise, and this has left many of the key players with battered share prices.
24/7 Wall St. reviews dozens of analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations each day of the week to find overlooked or hidden value calls for its readers. For investors with a long-term view, this brings many opportunities in oil and gas stocks and in master limited partnerships (MLPs). Again — long-term. Analyst calls and stocks in the oil patch are subject to commodity prices, like it or not, and that means nobody can accurately call a bottom without luck.
There were many research reports this past week with big analyst calls in energy stocks. Many of these companies have recovered or are priced for long-term value investors to now consider positions. 24/7 Wall St. has reviewed nine different analyst calls in the energy sector with solid upside targets. Some obviously have more risk than others, but there are industry and sub-sector leaders in here as well.
Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA) was maintained as Outperform at RBC Capital Markets on Friday. The call remains positive, but RBC’s official price target was cut to $77 from $82 in the call. Apache shares closed up only 0.7% at $65.54 on Friday, and the stock has a 52-week range of $54.34 to $104.57 and a consensus price target near $71. If RBC’s lower price target proves to be right, Apache shareholders would get implied upside of over 18%, if that 1% dividend remains.
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Enterprise Products Partners LP (NYSE: EPD) was reiterated as Buy at Argus early in the week. What really stood out in the call was a $44 price target, over $3 higher than the consensus price target. After closing out the week at $33.37, this leaves implied upside of over 35%, if you include its distribution. Enterprise is now the largest MLP, with a $66 billion market cap, and it is generally considered among the best few major MLPs out there.
Golar LNG Ltd. (NASDAQ: GLNG) was given a serious upside call of about 35% from Merrill Lynch this past week. This was also after huge gains were already seen when Golar signed an agreement with Ophir Energy for Golar’s GoFLNG vessel Gimi, its second floating natural gas production facility. Merrill Lynch already had a Buy rating for Golar LNG, but it raised its price objective to $60 from $40. The $46.08 close on Friday left implied upside of 35%, including the distribution. Golar LNG also has a consensus target of almost $55.
Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO) was raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo after earnings on Friday. Marathon’s valuation range was raised to $34.00 to $36.00 from a prior range of $30.00 to $32.00, based on a discount to its net asset value (NAV) estimate of roughly $35.00 per share. With Marathon closing at $29.31 on Friday, the implied upside is about 10% in total return, but that $35.00 NAV target implies over 20% in total return implied, if that is right. Marathon has a 52-week range of $24.28 to $41.92 and a consensus price target of $32.78.
Whiting Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: WLL) had a mixed week because of David Einhorn outlining why he is short selling frackers. Still, the Bakken shale player was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley earlier in the week. What really stood out was the price target of $48, versus a prior $37.68 close. Due to the Einhorn bash, Whiting closed at $35.45 on Friday. Whiting’s consensus target is closer to $43, but the Morgan Stanley target implies upside of roughly 35%. As a reminder, Whiting was once thought to be a buyout candidate. Those rumors and reports have since evaporated.
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Buckeye Partners L.P. (NYSE: BPL) was raised to Buy from Hold at Stifel earlier in the week. What stood out was an $89 price target, well above the consensus target of $83.59, and almost $10 higher than Friday’s closing price of $79.52. The Buckeye MLP comes with a distribution yield north of 5% as well, leaving over 15% in total return upside, if the call works out. Buckeye’s 52-week range is $63.77 to $85.14. Its market cap is $10 billion.
Enable Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: ENBL) was raised to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse on Friday. This MLP came with a price target of $21, versus a $16.51 prior close and a $16.67 closing price on Friday. If Credit Suisse is right, this leaves upside of more than 25% — or over 30% if you include the static distribution from Enable. This MLP has a higher yield-equivalent than most MLPs and a market cap that is roughly $7 billion.
HollyFrontier Corp. (NYSE: HFC) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform by RBC Capital Markets on Thursday. The price target was raised to $49.00 from $40.00 in the call, after earnings from this week came out. Shares were under $40 ahead of the report, but HollyFrontier closed Friday at $42.25. Its 52-week range is $30.15 to $51.31. If RBC is right, there is still implied upside of over 15%, or almost 20% if the dividend stays in the equation.
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Kosmos Energy Ltd. (NYSE: KOS) was raised to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank early in the week. What stood out was that the price target was raised to $15 from $13, versus a $9.35 prior close. Kosmos closed Friday at $9.39, implying more than 50% upside. Investors should consider that Kosmos is probably riskier than most oil and gas exploration outfits — it operates in Africa, Europe and South America — and Bermuda is its corporate base.
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As 24/7 Wall St. is running these top oil and gas analyst calls most weekends now, we are also looking to keep a record of prior calls so that they are not missed or forgotten about. After all, these are not meant to be short-term calls, where one week changes the world’s view for now. The prior weekend’s analyst calls featured five oil and gas stocks and MLPs that analysts want their firm’s clients to buy. These included CONSOL Energy and YPF. Also, this means that there were repeated calls (from different analysts) in Enterprise Products, Marathon Oil and Whiting Petroleum.
As a reminder, analyst calls and their respective price targets are generally implied to have outlooks that are based a year or more out. These are not meant to be front-running earnings reports, and they certainly are not calls on where oil and gas prices will go in the next week or two.
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