Without a refining business to help offset low crude prices or the ability to export crude oil in quantity, among the hardest hit oil producers are the pure-play exploration and production (E&P) companies. The current price climate is especially harsh on smaller, more speculative producers who borrowed heavily to boost production and are now faced with paying off those debts with crude prices stuck below $50 a barrel.

While not facing quite the existential threat of the smaller companies, the large E&P players face not only declining profits, but widening losses. Analysts at Oppenheimer include 15 pure-play E&P companies in their coverage, including ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY), Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD), and Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN).

For the universe of its coverage, Oppenheimer is downbeat:

Lower oil prices should help boost foreign volume under production-sharing agreements and ramp-up from new projects, partially offset by normal field decline and scheduled facility maintenance impact. Most large E&Ps are expected to report production increases despite reduced drilling activity and normal field decline … .

That doesn’t sound so bad, but the impact on earnings is significant. In fact, Oppenheimer expects just one of its covered companies to post positive earnings per share (EPS) and just two to report positive EPS in the fourth quarter. For the full-year, the analysts expect just six E&P companies to post positive earnings, and two of those are primarily natural gas producers. In 2016 only the two largest pure-play E&P companies are expected to post profits.

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ConocoPhillips is expected to report a third-quarter EPS loss of $0.23. The company posted EPS of $1.29 in the third quarter of 2014 and a profit of $0.07 per share in the second quarter of this year. In each of the three preceding years, Conoco has reported full-year EPS of $5.51, $5.70 and $5.30, respectively. Oppenheimer expects to see a loss of $0.50 for 2015, but a recovery to a full-year profit of $0.40 a share in 2016. Consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters call for per-share net losses of $0.19 in the third quarter and $0.14 in the fourth quarter. For the year, the consensus is a net loss of $0.40 per share. In 2016, Conoco is expected to show a profit of $1.03 per share, according to Thomson Reuters.

Oppenheimer’s third-quarter forecast for Occidental calls for a net loss of $0.02 per share compared with a profit of $1.58 per share a year ago and EPS of $0.21 in the second quarter of 2015. For the full year, the analysts forecast EPS of $0.20. Occidental is also expected to show a profit of $0.21 per share in 2016, the only company other than Conoco expected to post a 2016 profit. In the past three years, Occidental has reported full-year EPS of $7.09, $6.95 and $5.86, respectively. The consensus third-quarter estimate calls for EPS of $0.06 and the fourth-quarter estimate is EPS of $0.05. For 2015 the consensus calls for EPS of $0.36 and the 2016 estimate is $1.33.

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Anadarko is expected to be one of the hardest hit stocks in the third quarter. Oppenheimer estimates a net loss of $0.76 per share, behind only Murphy (net loss of $1.13) and Hess (net loss of $0.91). For the fourth quarter, Anadarko is expected to report a net loss of $0.94 per share, second only to Murphy’s net loss of $0.98. In the past three years, Anadarko has reported full-year EPS of $3.52, $4.02 and $4.14, respectively. For 2015, Oppenheimer expects the company to report a net loss of $2.41 per share, followed by a 2016 net loss of $2.69 a share. The consensus estimates call for a third-quarter net loss of $0.69, a fourth-quarter net loss of $0.74, and a full-year net loss of $2.14. For 2016 the consensus is a net loss of $0.86.

Oppenheimer’s analysts expect Pioneer Natural Resources to lose $0.09 per share in the third quarter and $0.10 in the fourth quarter. For the full year, the analysts estimate a net loss of $0.12 per share, improving to a full-year loss of $0.02 in 2016. For each of the past three years, Pioneer has reported profits of $3.66, $4.69 and $4.78, respectively. The third-quarter consensus estimate calls for Pioneer to report a loss of $0.03 per share, but returning to post a profit of $0.06 in the fourth quarter. The full-year consensus estimate calls for EPS of $0.06, rising to $0.49 for 2016.

Of the 15 companies covered by Oppenheimer, Devon is the only one expected to post a profit in the third quarter and one of only two expected to post a profit in the fourth quarter (the other is Range Resources). Oppenheimer sees Devon posting EPS of $0.62 for the third quarter and $0.66 for the fourth quarter. For the year, Devon’s EPS is expected to be $2.27, but the analysts see the company swinging to a net loss of $1.09 per share in 2016. The consensus estimates call for EPS of $0.55 in the third quarter and $0.63 in the fourth quarter. For 2015, analysts expect EPS of $2.11 declining to $0.16 in 2016.

As of October 7, Oppenheimer rates Anadarko and Occidental as Outperform and Conoco, Devon and Pioneer as Perform.

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