Energy

Why Credit Suisse Now Sees Much Larger Upside in Whiting Petroleum Than Peers

Jon C. Ogg

Published: July 13, 2016 10:25 am

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 5:46 am

Whiting Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: WLL) is no stranger to volatility. Despite having more than doubled from its 52-week low, Whiting shares are still down close to 70% from their 52-week highs. The outlook on oil remains rather mixed, from economists and from analysts alike, but a significant analyst call could be brewing more upside interest for Whiting shareholders ahead.

Credit Suisse issued an upgrade on Wednesday, July 13. The firm sees upside above and beyond what rival analysts are calling for on average. The driving force behind the call also may have a positive spillover for several other companies, if Credit Suisse is right.

Wednesday’s upgrade from Credit Suisse was to Outperform from Neutral. The firm’s Mark Lear and team have noted that Whiting’s stock pullback following its recently announced debt swap has provided investors a compelling entry opportunity for this levered crude player.

What stands out in this upgrade is that Whiting’s price target was raised to $14 from $13. If Credit Suisse’s team is proven to be right, that would imply upside of almost 60%.

Lear and his team said:

Our target price is further aided by a recent debt exchange whereby the company was able to remove $1.065 billion of debt principal through the use of mandatory convertibles. Our $14.00 per share target price shown below is based on an assumption of max dilution, with actual shares issued on the convertible debt depending on how WLL’s stock trades over the next few weeks. This exchange came on the heels of a smaller first quarter announcement which removes approximately $477 million of debt from the balance sheet.

In the most recent exchange, the minimum mandatory conversion price has a lower bound at $8.75 per share, which when coupled with macro fears appears to have unjustly hurt and kept the stock range-bound since the announcement, as Whiting is down approximately 34% over the past month relative to the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration ETS is up about 2%. However, an extensive inventory in the core of the Williston coupled with improving type curves from larger completions which are increasing validated in state production data provide compelling near term catalysts as we expect drilling activity to accelerate in 2017 at the latest. Meanwhile, asset sales remain another key catalyst with remaining assets on the block including North Ward Estes and the monetization of Whiting’s Williston Basin gas plants.

Credit Suisse went on to note that Whiting’s stock valuation has the shares trading at a discount to the broader exploration and production group at 8.6 times enterprise value to 2016 EBITDA (versus peers at 13.7 times). The firm also noted that the valuation is expected to contract to 7.5 times in 2017, which compares to the group multiple contracting to 10.3 times.

To see just how bullish this call is for peers, Credit Suisse’s note showed that this 59% upside for Whiting on a net asset value is versus implied upside of about 12% to the peer group.

24/7 Wall St. noted earlier that the $14 price target was above the consensus target price. Thomson Reuters has the consensus analyst price target at $13.71, but the median target price is a tad lower at $13.00. Some 16 analysts have Buy or Outperform ratings, 21 have Hold or Neutral ratings and just two have Sell ratings.

Whiting Petroleum shares were last seen up just almost 3% at $9.05 in active trading on Wednesday. To show just how volatile this situation has been, this stock has a 52-week range of $3.35 to $30.68.