Energy

What Could Help Exxon and Chevron Repeat 2016 Gains in 2017

Chris Lange

Published: January 4, 2017 10:15 am

Last Updated: January 12, 2020 4:10 pm

2016 was a total reversal of fortune for the big oil companies. While some of the second- and third-tier oil players saw massive gains, there were rather impressive gains seen in shares of Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) and in Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) when you consider that they are already Dow stocks. Now we have Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson slated to be Donald Trump’s Secretary of State, which is very pro-oil when you consider the other administration appoints around energy.

24/7 Wall St. has evaluated a bull/bear case for each Dow stock in 2017. Some Dow stocks may have seen their shares rally enough in late 2016 that they ate into the would-be gains that should have been expected in 2017. Still, there is mixed upside in many Dow components and we all know that there are great dividends ahead. Both Chevron and Exxon are in the 2017 Dogs of the Dow, outyielding Treasuries handily.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed out the year 2016 at 19,762.60, and while that was short of the 20,000 mark, it was still a gain of 13.4% from the 17,425.03 close on the last trading day of 2015. We do still have a case that can be made for up to Dow 22,000 late in 2017.

Undoubtedly the Dow has been pushed to these highs as the result of the Trump rally. Some definitive characteristics of the rally have been a strong performance by the financial sector, as well as a strong push from energy stocks, with oil back above $50 a barrel. A strong performance from the energy sector going forward as oil prices are increasing could further drive the Dow to even higher levels.

So, here is what may be in store for 2017 in the Dow’s oil and gas giants.

Chevron rose 36% in 2016 and ended the year at $117.70. Its current consensus analyst price target of $119.65 implies limited upside, if the analysts are correct, but that target price has risen handily of late. It was a consensus $115.59 target at the start of December and was closer to a $111 target at the start of October.

Chevron currently has close to a 3.7% yield. It’s worth pointing out that this oil giant handily outyielded Exxon in 2016, not only on the dividend side but also in terms of its annual performance.

In OPEC’s recent meeting in November, the group announced a production cut that saw many analysts lift their targets on major oil stocks. Chevron was a big beneficiary of this, with Citigroup upping its price target to $129 from $110, implying an upside of 14% from the previous closing price of $113.00.

Earlier in the fall, Goldman Sachs issued a call saying that Chevron was more attractive than Exxon after reporting earnings, and the firm assigned a $118 price target for the stock. Goldman Sachs was ultimately right in this call, but since then the firm reiterated its Buy rating for Chevron and Neutral rating for Exxon.

Chevron has a 52-week trading range of $75.33 to $119.00 and a market cap of $222 billion. Its dividend yield is 3.7%.

If we look back a couple years we would see that Chevron and Exxon Mobil had an atrocious stock performance in 2015, being among the worst performing Dow stocks that year. Then came the oil recovery and that all reversed into being among the best Dow stocks. This performance was somewhat unexpected because most analysts were predicting that these companies would have recovered through opportunistic acquisitions and M&A, as opposed to rising oil prices.

Both Chevron and Exxon have pledged to keep strong dividends, and Chevron went as far in 2016 as saying it would even tap credit lines to do so. One trend that has come about is that share buybacks seem to have gone dark in the oil patch. It just is not a good use of cash when business times are tough, and it’s hard to communicate to employees that they got fired because the company needs to pay its shareholders.

Exxon generated a return of almost 20% in 2016, and it closed out the year at $90.26. With Rex Tillerson leaving to become the presumptive Secretary of State, it is expected that the Trump administration will be very pro-oil.

As we have said before, Exxon Mobil saw a reversal of fortune from 2015. It closed the prior year at $77.95 (not adjusted for the dividend payments) for a loss of 12.8%, including its dividend adjustments. At the start of 2016, the consensus price target from Thomson Reuters was only $83.52, so Exxon greatly exceeded expectations. And the $90.26 year-end price of 2016 compare with an $88.05 consensus price target at this time. That 3.3% dividend yield for Exxon Mobil shareholders would help to negate the 2.5% expected price drop, if analysts are correct.

Exxon has not yet revealed its capital spending budget for 2017, but there seems to be a likelihood that the slower and lower spending trends for longer is getting better. A year ago, that was a trend that was only getting worse.  That will end up being mixed news for investors if the larger drilling efforts by all oil players starts to pressure oil at a time that OPEC was supposed to be cutting production.

As we have mentioned earlier, Goldman Sachs likes Chevron more and in turn rated Exxon with a Neutral rating and a $98 price target. Some of the key highlights from this report were that this analyst previously saw Exxon as the defensive oil winner, but now Chevron is better for generating cash flow. Also a range-bound price environment for oil is not as favorable for Exxon. Lastly, Exxon has been hesitant to consider larger M&A to boost reserves.

Although Tillerson is leaving to be a part of the new presidential administration, which is obviously positive for the industry in general, there could be some problems with how this administration handles companies that keep cash overseas. It is no secret that Trump has been all about bringing jobs and money back to the United States, not to mention Exxon keeps a sizable amount of cash outside of the U.S. (reportedly over $45 billion).

Exxon has a 52-week range of $71.55 to $95.55 and a market cap of $374 billion. Its dividend yield is 3.3%.