A global total of 55 gigawatts of new solar PV capacity was added in 2015, and that growth is forecast to rise 21%, to 66 gigawatts, in 2016. The two markets predicted to grow the most are India and the United States, with demand up by 127% and 120%, respectively.
Growth is slowing down however, due primarily to reduced demand from China, Japan and the United Kingdom. In 2015 China accounted for 34% of global demand for new solar PV capacity. That is forecast to decline to 26% this year and gradually reach just 22% in 2020. Japan’s share in 2015 totaled 21% of the market, but that is on track to fall to 15% this year and to just 3% in 2020.
The U.S. forecast calls for demand growth in 2016 from 13% last year to 24%, taking over second place from Japan. U.S. growth slows over the next two years and then recovers to around 19% in 2020. India, which accounted for just 4% of the global market for solar PV in 2015, will see its share rise to 8% in 2016 and on up to 13% in 2020.
The data were released Monday by GTM Research. The report noted:
The gap between utility-scale solar and distributed generation (DG) has shrunk in the past two years as residential growth in the U.S., Germany, the U.K., and Japan has picked up. DG growth will continue to be driven by greater end-customer familiarity with solar, higher cost-competitiveness, and country-tailored business models that build on leasing’s success in the U.S. but are adapted to the specific needs of emerging markets.
GTM Research also called attention to five global trends in solar PV:
- Multi-gigawatt markets: Currently 13 countries have installed at least 2 gigawatts of PV capacity. That number is forecast to grow to more than 20 by 2020.
- Europe’s rebound and India’s surge: GTM Research expects a turnaround for in Europe, once the largest market for solar installation. Demand is forecast to grow from 10% this year to 13% by 2020. India is forecast to install as much solar in 2020 as all of Europe.
- Latin America heats up: Latin American capacity is expected to double from a small base this year, with Mexico and Brazil as the two most promising regions in Latin America.
- Evolving mechanisms for growth: Auctions are becoming increasingly important in a number of countries as feed-in tariffs.
- Utility-scale leads, but distributed generation will grow: Utility-scale installations are forecast to account for 61% of all PV installed in 2016.
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