The federal government has not made public any forecast of what would happen if a storm the magnitude of Katrina occurred over the next two months and the Deepwater Horizon leak continued at its current daily pace.
Attached is a map of the Kartina storm surge, which shows that water was pushed inland beyond New Orleans and did significant damage in three states.
If this were to happen at the same time that the Gulf was covered with oil, the effects would be catastrophic and could last for years as hundreds of thousand of gallons would be pushed inland.The current projection map from the NOAA shows that the spill is already in a position to go ashore across most of the Louisiana coast as well as parts of Alabama and Missisippi.
The size of the slick could easily double in the next six weeks. The current NOAA assessment of its size and trajectory is
NOAA scientists continue to generate surface oil trajectories. In the nearshore, onshore winds are expected to continue through Friday with speeds of 10-15 kts. The winds will result in northward movement of oil towards the Mississippi/Alabama barrier islands. The northeastward movement of oil could continue over the next few days threatening shorelines as far east as Pensacola, Fla. Threats to shorelines in Breton Sound, Chandeleur Sound, and the NE side of the Mississippi Delta will be reduced while west of the Delta, more shoreline impacts could occur.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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