BP plc (NYSE: BP) was going to put a new cap on its well which is leaking as much as 60,000 barrels a day of crude into the Gulf of Mexico. Then, that plan was delayed over government concerns that it could create unsustainable pressure in the well-head.
The government later decided that the experiment was worth the risk, and the new cap is being slowly put into place. In the last few hours, there is some information coming out that the area around the cap is leaking again.BP is drilling two relief wells which should be in place within a few weeks that it says ought to be able to dump enough mud and cement into the leak to stop it. That plan presents two formidable risks. The first is that the relief wells may hit the ocean floor off the mark. The process of “aiming” them correctly one mile below the Gulf’s surface is extremely difficult.
The other problem with the relief wells is that pumping cement into the leak may slow the rate at which it releases crude, but may not stop it. The cement could cause a build-up of pressure in the oil field near the leaking well, which could cause another rupture in the ocean floor.
The seesaw between hope and despair about whether the leak can be repaired is swinging back into toward despair. That process began when the new cap was delayed. A small leak created during the process worsens the situation. Analysis from scientists about the success of the relief wells is troubling. But, the scientists have been right before. The government and BP said that the amount of the leak was only 5,000 barrels a day early on. Scientists said it could be many times that. There were right.
The problem that the leak could continue until the well runs dry is “on the table” again. That means the scope of the catastrophe could move beyond measurement and any accurate prediction. The possibility that the well could not be capped has been an issue all along. BP is running out of solutions each day. What is possible now may be probable tomorrow.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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