OPEC Forecasts 2014 Demand Growth for Crude Oil

Energy

Published: February 12, 2014 8:55 am

In the February issue of its Monthly Oil Market Report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has increased its estimate of global crude oil demand by 50,000 barrels a day to 1.09 million barrels, or a total demand of 90.98 million barrels a day. Interestingly OPEC is forecasting “strong growth” in the developed nations of North America and Europe.

World oil supply from non-OPEC countries is estimated at 54.14 million barrels a day in 2013, up by 1.28 million barrels over 2012. In 2014, OPEC projects non-OPEC supply to rise by 1.29 million barrels a day to 55.43 million barrels. The total contribution of the United States and Canada to global supply in 2014 is forecast at 11.99 million barrels a day and 4.13 million barrels a day, respectively. OPEC expects U.S. supply to rise by 840,000 barrels a day in 2014.

As always, OPEC is coy about its members’ contributions to global supply. In January the cartel produced an average of 29.71 million barrels a day, just short of the established quota of 30 million. That estimate is based on non-OPEC secondary sources. Based on direct communications with cartel members, OPEC produced 30.92 million barrels a day in January.

Expected improvements in the global economy, particularly in the developed nations, are driving crude oil demand forecasts for 2014. Demand from China rose by 33,000 barrels a day in 2013 and is forecast to rise by an additional 34,000 barrels a day in 2014. Chinese demand is expected to reach 10.4 million barrels a day in 2014.

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