The most recent forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration calls for the average price of a gallon of gasoline to rise to a peak of $3.66 in May before declining to $3.46 a gallon in September. For the summer driving months of April through September the EIA forecasts an average price of $3.57 a gallon while the full-year average is expected to come in at $3.45 a gallon compared with $3.51 a gallon in 2013.

The EIA’s latest forecast, issued Tuesday, calls for WTI crude oil prices to rise to an average price of $95.60 a barrel in 2014. The prior forecast called for an average price of $95.33 a barrel. In 2013 the average per barrel price was $97.91.

Brent crude is now forecast to average $104.88 a barrel in 2014 compared with an average of $108.64 last year.

Pump prices for gasoline have been rising steadily for many weeks now and there are a number of reason given for the ever-higher prices. Production costs are higher, demand is down in both the U.S. and China, and, not least, the price of ethanol is rising. By the end of March the spot price of a gallon of ethanol exceeded the price of a gallon of reformulated (RBOB) gasoline by more than $1.00. Here’s the EIA chart:

There has been plenty of speculation recently that WTI crude oil prices could sink to $75 a barrel in the U.S. That is almost certainly not going to happen. A more realistic low price for crude is $95.

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