Energy
Falling Gasoline Prices May Not Be Stopped by Inventory Declines
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Total gasoline inventories decreased by 4.4 million barrels last week, and have moved into the middle of the five-year average range. Total motor gasoline supplied (the EIA’s measure of consumption) averaged about 9.1 million barrels a day for the past four weeks, up by about 0.3% over the same period a year ago.
Distillate inventories dropped by 1.8 million barrels last week and remain near the lower limit of the average range. Distillate product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 2.9% when compared with the same period last year. Distillate production averaged 4.8 million barrels a day last week, down by 200,000 barrels a day compared with the prior week’s production.
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Tuesday evening, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that crude inventories fell by 5.5 million barrels in the week ending August 1, together with a drop of 3.6 million barrels in gasoline supplies and a decrease of 500,000 barrels in distillate supplies. For the same period, analysts estimated a decrease of 1.9 million barrels in crude inventories, a decrease of 700,000 barrels in gasoline inventories, and a rise of 1.1 million barrels in distillate inventories.
Before the EIA report, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading up at around $97.93 a barrel, about 0.6% above Tuesday’s closing price of $97.38. The WTI price rose to around $98.05 a barrel shortly after the report was released.
For the past week, crude imports averaged over 7.6 million barrels a day, down by about 181,000 barrels a day over the previous week. Refineries were running at 92.4% of capacity, with daily input of about 16.4 million barrels a day, about 200,000 barrels a day below the previous week’s average.
Gasoline pump prices continue to slip as inventories rise. Crude oil prices are about $3.50 a barrel below last week’s level. The large inventory drawdown on gasoline this week could boost prices a bit, but the trend has been toward lower pump prices and that is what we think will continue.
According to AAA, the current national average pump price per gallon of regular gasoline is $3.483, down from $3.513 a week ago and down from $3.656 a month ago. Last year a gallon of regular cost $3.608 on average in the United States.
Here is a look at how share prices at three U.S. producers are reacted to the latest report.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) traded up about 0.9%, at $99.02 in a 52-week range of $84.79 to $104.76.
Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) traded up about 1%, at $126.24 in a 52-week range of $109.27 to $135.10.
Continental Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLR) traded down about 1.5%, at $143.62 in a 52-week range of $90.11 to $159.24. Continental is the largest producer in the Bakken shale play and reported softer than expected results Wednesday morning.
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