As each new year gets approaches, investors start to wonder which of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stocks will lead the market higher in the coming year. With all the doom and gloom in the oil and gas market over the past month, it would take a serious contrarian to bet that Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) would be the two best performing DJIA stocks of 2015.

Without trying to predict this as a real expectation with almost a month to go before 2015 starts, 24/7 Wall St. wanted to look at what might actually make Exxon and Chevron be the top-performing DJIA stocks of 2015. This of course goes beyond just hoping or guessing about higher oil prices in a snapback recovery.

The first thing to consider with most DJIA stocks is that sentiment gets too high when times are good for a company, and sentiment usually gets too negative when times are hard for a company. The DJIA indexers actually jettisoned Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) from the Dow in late 2013, and its shares have doubled from the lows of 2013. Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) was viewed very favorably at the end of 2013 after having gained 84% that year, and the expected gain for 2014 was projected to be almost 10% for 2014. So far its loss has been less than 1% year to date.

So, outside of an unexpected return to $100 oil, what serious issues would it take for the universe to make Exxon Mobil and Chevron the best DJIA stocks of 2015? For starters, let’s look backward here. As of Monday’s closing prices, Chevron was the second worst DJIA stock of 2014, with a return of worse than -7.3%. Exxon Mobil was the third worst-performing Dow stock of 2014, with a loss of almost 6.2%. Our own 2014 DJIA bull and bear outlook showed that analysts were predicting that Exxon would lose 4% and Chevron would gain almost 6%.

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For 2015 to work out, it might seem like things would have to get even worse in the oil patch before they get better. Still, oil’s drop has been from over $100 down to well under $65. Would Exxon or Chevron issuing a profit warning take the stocks down enough to make them attractive for 2015? Perhaps.

Another issue to consider is that troubled oil markets are generally better opportunities for the larger and more well-heeled oil and gas giants over the tier-two and tier-three players in the space. Exxon and Chevron currently have over $600 billion in combined market capitalization, even after the pullback. They are the two largest American players, and they could decide to be opportunistic or defensive, depending on how they view the world.

Chevron and Exxon also both have ample expected earnings per share (EPS) coverage by analysts to maintain their high dividends in 2015 — how much those payouts can be raised is another matter. Exxon’s dividend of $2.76 per year compares to Thomson Reuters estimates of $7.59 EPS in 2014 and $6.58 EPS for 2015. Chevron’s annualized dividend of $4.28 compares to consensus estimates of $10.08 EPS for 2014 and $9.14 EPS for 2015. What if both companies decide to lower capital spending further and use the money for stock buybacks?

Or, what if the bad news is or is not adequately priced in yet? Exxon Mobil shares trade around $92.40, against a 52-week range of $86.91 to $104.76, and against a consensus analyst price target of $100.44. Exxon also has a 3.0% dividend yield to add to the expected gains. Chevron trades close to $111, versus a 52-week range of $106.65 to $135.10 and a consensus price target just above $130. Chevron also has a 3.9% dividend yield.

We are seeing analysts lower targets handily for oil and for oil players. Deutsche Bank lowered its targets on top oil giants. Meanwhile, Merrill Lynch outlined which MLP oil and gas infrastructure stocks might be insulated against lower oil prices. Jefferies just noted Chevron as being among the top potential high-yield dividends for 2015.

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Can you imagine that Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) has been the best-performing DJIA stock so far in 2014? Its gain up to Monday’s close had been over 47%. On average, analysts at start of 2014 were calling for Intel to lose about 5% for the year. It turns out that all the concerns about the death of the PC market and the mobile-only future were simply far more of a potential problem rather than a problem in reality. Go figure.

Lastly, let’s think about International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) in the same light as a potential top performer in 2015. It is a stretch, based on sentiment now, and we are not going to try to make that prediction this far ahead of year-end. Still, IBM has been the worst-performing DJIA stock of 2014 with a loss of almost 12%. Imagine what would have to occur for IBM to be considered the best Dow stock prospect for 2015. While its loss has been over 10% so far, at the start of 2014 analysts were calling for IBM to gain almost 3% in 2014.

The thing to keep in mind in looking for the best-performing stocks (or worst) is that there is the strategy of picking the DJIA’s biggest losers to be the next year’s biggest gainers. It is far from scientific and far from being an accurate barometer. Still, many investors try to look for opportunity there when they can. 24/7 Wall St. would again warn readers that it is still far too soon to predict the top winners and losers for the DJIA in 2015. That caveat stated, it is not too soon to start thinking about which set-ups investors will be looking for in 2015.

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