Oil did not start Tuesday on a good note, but it did make a strong recovery, and that is reflected in the stock prices of some major oil companies. Crude oil dropped as low as $53.60 in Tuesday’s morning trading and has since risen as high as $57.15, representing a bounce of 6.6% from low to high. 24/7 Wall St. will not dare try to peg the bottom in oil. After all, that is a sucker’s game, and even the best of the best in the oil and gas sector have all but thrown their hands up in trying to make forecasts now. Still, the looming question remains: Have we found the bottom yet for oil prices, and what does this bounce mean?
The current prices seen in the market are multiyear lows that have not been seen since 2009 when the market was climbing out of the recession. We also just highlighted last week that this was becoming the second worst oil chart of a generation.
Looking at the chart for oil prices, we see what seems obvious this time around, that the financial side of the trade has again completely overtaken the fundamentals of supply and demand. To the downside that is. That being said, this downward move looks and feels like the inverse of what happened from 2007 to 2008. When it ends is of course a guess, as is at what price the floor occurs.
Oil prices have bounced before, after hitting relative lows in 2011 and 2012 below the $80 mark. Oil was at a relative high in June above the $100 level and has since only fallen. The bounce we saw Tuesday could signal a turnaround in oil prices or very well just be a bump on the road as prices continue to fall.
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24/7 Wall St. picked a few equities that oil prices have an incredible impact on, to reflect what this bounce could mean for them and if they might have a “Santa Rally” of their own.
Exxon Mobile Corp. (NYSE: XOM) has a market cap of about $370 billion. The range on the day thus far is $86.19 to $89.20, representing a bounce of 3.5% from the low to the high. Shares were up less than 1% at $87.26 in the second half of the trading day. The stock has a 52-week trading range of $86.19 to $104.76.
Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) has a market cap of roughly $194 billion. The range on the day thus far is $100.15 to $104.47, representing a bounce of 4.3% from the low to the high. Shares were up almost 2% at $102.70 in the second half of the training day. The stock has a 52-week trading range of $100.15 to $135.10. We even recently highlighted what could make Exxon and Chevron the best Dow stocks of 2015.
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Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (NYSE: PBR), or Petrobras, has a market cap of roughly $42 billion. The range on the day thus far is $5.87 to $6.64, representing a bounce of 13.1% from the low to the high. Shares were up almost 3% at $6.44. The stock has a 52-week trading range of $5.87 to $20.94. As a reminder, Petrobras is not even a real company as far as investors should be concerned. The Brazilian government’s dominance and the capital structure make it very difficult for investors to win.
Kinder Morgan Inc. (NYSE: KMI) has a market cap of roughly $39 billion on the surface, but the reconstituted Kinder Morgan after the three-entity roll-up makes this company far larger. The range on the day thus far is $37.06 to $39.09, representing a bounce of 5.5% from the low to the high. Shares were flat at $38.28 in the second half of the trading day. The stock has a 52-week trading range of $30.81 to $42.49.
Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL) has a market cap of over $32 billion. The range on the day thus far is $37.21 to $39.70, representing a bounce of 6.7% from the low to the high. Shares were up over 2% at $38.72. The stock has a 52-week trading range of $37.21 to $74.33.
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Again, picking a bottom when the financial trade has completely decoupled from reality seems nearly impossible. That is not the point, but volatility of this nature has to at least make some investors and speculators wonder if the light at the end of the tunnel is close (and if that light is from an oncoming freight train).
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