Natural gas futures for April delivery traded up about 1% in advance of the EIA’s report, at around $2.85 per million BTUs, and did not react to the report. Natural gas futures have slipped from around $2.88 per million BTUs since last week. The 52-week low for natural gas futures is $2.59. One year ago the price for a million BTUs was around $4.40.
In its revised Short-Term Energy Outlook issued earlier this week, the EIA projected a first-quarter average price of $2.92 per million BTUs and $2.93 per million BTUs in the second quarter. Prices are expected to average $3.07 for the full year and $3.48 in 2016. Monthly average spot prices are forecast to remain below $3 per million BTUs through May and below $4 per million BTUs through 2016.
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The low prices are a result of record production, which hit a high in December of 78.8 billion cubic feet per day. The EIA noted that the production increase in the face of falling prices and lower rig counts is likely due to improved rig efficiency. The EIA raised its daily production forecast for 2015 to 70.43 billion cubic feet and its forecast for 2016 to 73 billion cubic feet.
Demand for heating was about average last week, but warmer weather in the first part of this week and expected cooler weather east of the Rockies into next week are forecast to average out to a moderate demand for natural gas through next Tuesday. The colder forecast pushed April futures up sharply in Wednesday’s trading.
Stockpiles are about 46.9% above their levels of a year ago and about 13% below the five-year average.
The EIA reported that U.S. working stocks of natural gas totaled 1.51 trillion cubic feet, about 225 billion cubic feet below the five-year average of 1.74 trillion cubic feet and 483 billion cubic feet above last year’s total for the same period. Working gas in storage totaled 1.03 trillion cubic feet for the same period a year ago.
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Here is how stocks of the largest U.S. natural gas producers reacted to this latest report:
Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), the country’s largest producer of natural gas, traded up about 0.3% to $84.27, in a 52-week range of $84.00 to $104.76.
Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) traded down about 0.4%, at $14.23 in a 52-week range of $13.68 to $29.92.
EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG) traded down about 0.1% to $86.46. The 52-week range is $81.07 to $118.89.
Furthermore, the United States Natural Gas ETF (NYSEMKT: UNG) traded down about 0.8%, at $14.21 in a 52-week range of $13.12 to $26.88.
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