What to Look For in Petrobras Earnings

The Petrobras story is not so much the company’s performance as an oil company but its legal troubles. Last fall investigators said that former company officials had bribed government officials, and subsequent events led to the replacement of the company’s CEO, and a write-down of nearly $17 billion was taken when the company finally reported fourth quarter 2014 results last month. The write-down took into account the corruption scandal, cost overruns and the impact on the company of falling crude oil prices.

The ADSs have recovered from a 52-week low of below $5 to close at $9.93 on Thursday, but that is still down more than 50% in the past 12 months. From a high of more than $77 in 2008, the company’s fortunes have fallen as it has piled up debt and failed to meet its production goals.

Also, because the company is controlled by the Brazilian government, its profits are controlled by government-mandated prices for its refined products. This has been particularly harsh recently as Brazil has battled inflation and falling oil prices. Petrobras has received some relief in its downstream business as fuel prices have risen and the value lost at the upstream end is now being made up at the downstream end.

Still, the corruption and bribery scandal continues to plague the company. Brazilian prosecutors on Thursday charged four politicians with money laundering, embezzlement and other crimes related to corruption at Petrobras. Prosecutors estimate that an alleged $2 billion in bribes were paid, and they have said that more public officials will be charged. Four former Petrobras executives have so far been charged with crimes, as have some 23 other business executives.

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Any sign of production growth will be welcome, and any indication that production will rise over the next few quarters will be even more welcome.

Shortly after Friday’s opening bell, Petrobras’s ADSs traded down about 1.7% to $9.76, in a 52-week range of $4.90 to $20.94. The consensus price target is $9.50 and the high target is $17.00.