The price of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reference basket of crude oils rose to $62.15 a barrel in May, the first time the basket’s monthly price has topped $60 a barrel since last November. OPEC crude hit a low at less than $49 a barrel on March 17, and its most recent daily high was posted on May 6 at $64.96 a barrel.

Does this mean that OPEC is winning its battle for market share? Probably not, but OPEC — and especially the Saudis — are playing a long game. The Saudis expect to be the last oil producer standing when everyone else’s wells have run dry.

In the near-term, OPEC production is rising and there is no concomitant rise in demand. The crude oil glut is not disappearing, and OPEC, which has a stated production target of 30 million barrels a day, is now pumping more than 31 million barrels a day, and the number is likely to rise even higher.

The cartel’s members meet in Vienna later this week, but no change to OPEC’s production target is expected. With U.S. producers setting up to return to producing more crude now that the price has hovered around $60 a barrel, crude oil prices are more likely to dip than rise following the OPEC meeting.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, closed at $66.14 on Friday and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, closed at $60.60. Both have dropped about 1% so far on Monday, partly as a result of the latest production estimate on OPEC crude and partly on a sharply stronger dollar.

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OPEC’s reference basket currently comprises the following crude oils: Saharan Blend (Algeria), Girassol (Angola), Oriente (Ecuador), Iran Heavy (Islamic Republic of Iran), Basra Light (Iraq), Kuwait Export (Kuwait), Es Sider (Libya), Bonny Light (Nigeria), Qatar Marine (Qatar), Arab Light (Saudi Arabia), Murban (UAE) and Merey (Venezuela).

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