Earnings season is well underway, Greece may be closer to being resolved, and China and Iran are being factored into the markets. Still, the S&P 500 slid 2.2% this last week. The trend that is almost 4 years old now is that investors have been gobbling up bargains in each and every sell-off. With oil back under $50 again, down more than 20% since the final days of June, oil and gas investors have to be taking a very long view of the oil and gas sector for value in the year ahead or for an even longer outlook.
24/7 Wall St. reviews dozens of analyst upgrades and downgrades each day to find hidden value that stands out above the rest of the pack. Some of these analyst calls come from the oil and gas sector, and they are generally targeted at long-term investors who are looking just beyond the next direction of the tick in oil prices.
Analysts often have very ambitious calls. Investors just need to understand that analysts are far from perfect. They certainly are not omniscient, and every investor needs to know that almost no Buy rating in oil and gas is going to look good if oil decides to head further south to $40 per barrel. Again, this is a hunt for value for the next year or even longer in the oil patch. The top six big oil and gas calls from this week have been included up front, but there were many other calls and some additional research notes on the second page of this report as well.
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE: EPD) is a top MLP and was among 4 top picks from Jefferies in a sector call this week. Enterprise managed again to raise its distribution, it maintains a very good long-term position in the market, and provides many of its services on the basis of long-term, fixed-fee contracts. Enterprise investors get better than a 5% distribution yield and Jefferies has a price target of $36.00 that is actually almost 10% lower than the consensus price target of $39.67. Enterprise closed at $27.39 on Friday, with Jefferies implying upside north of 35% with that distribution included.
EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE: EOG) was started as Outperform in a positive exploration and production call from Credit Suisse mid-week. EOG’s new price target was set at $103, implying upside of almost 40% higher than the $75.16 close on Friday if you include the 1% dividend. This EOG call is not even that much more ambitious than the consensus analyst target of $101.11. Also, keep in mind that earlier in July Goldman Sachs noted EOG as being one of the potential M&A players ahead. It has a $41 billion market cap.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) received a great call, but its stock broke under $80 to hit new 52-week lows at the end of the week. Exxon is also one of the 24/7 Wall St. 10 Stocks to Own for the Next Decade and was just given a review as value versus Chevron ahead of earnings in the coming days. The oil and gas giant was maintained as Buy at Goldman Sachs, but the firm added the oil and gas giant to its prized Conviction Buy List with a $95 price target. Exxon was covered more in-depth this week with the history of Goldman Sachs on Exxon, and its consensus analyst price target is now down to $92.35. What stood out here was that this key upgrade came on a day where the Goldman Sachs strategist had more cautious comments about its outlook on the oil sector in general.
Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB) is apparently a double-buy because it received two key analyst upgrades this last week. Wells Fargo raised its rating to Outperform from Market Perform, and it was raised to Buy from Hold at Societe Generale. The Wells Fargo fair value range was set at $93 to $103 in its call. If you want an opposing view, S&P Capital IQ maintained its Hold rating but cut the price target to $45 from $51 in its call. Schlumberger closed out the week at $82.90, and its consensus price target is almost $102 as of now.
Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) was started as Outperform with an $82 price target at Macquarie in what was a sector call with several other positive calls (see page 2). This was versus a $65.72 prior close, and shares went out at $65.70 at the end of the week. Valero has a consensus price target of $75.36 and a 52-week range of $42.53 to $68.27.
Whiting Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: WLL) is continually a controversial stock, with its dominance in the Bakken and with leverage that has made it move from a buyout candidate to a struggling shale player. Whiting received several calls this week, which will seem mixed when you consider the price change direction. Also, Whiting was at $26.00 earlier in the week but shares closed down at $22.93 on Friday versus a consensus analyst target of $42.46.
Whiting was raised to Positive from Neutral with a price target of $33.00 at Susquehanna. Oppenheimer maintained its Outperform rating but cut its price target down to $41 from $47 in its call. Raymond James lowered its price target to $42 (from $44) and Global Hunter lowered its target to $36 from $45 in its call. These may sound cautious if you just view them directionally, but this could be 50% to 100% upside if these analyst calls prove to have merit. At a $22.93 close on Friday, Whiting has a 52-week range of $22.67 (hit on Friday!) to $92.92.
24/7 Wall St. wanted to include several other analyst calls that were made in the oil patch as well. We highlighted 5 opportunities which were brewing in the MLP sector as well. Some calls were positive, and a couple not so much.
HollyFrontier Corp. (NYSE: HFC) was started as Outperform with a $52 price target (versus $46.73 close) at Macquarie.
Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO) was started as Outperform with a $119 price target (versus $98.44 close) at Macquarie.
Genesis Energy, L.P. (NYSE: GEL) was raised to outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
SandRidge Energy (NYSE: SD) was started as Underperform with a price target of $0.30 (down from $0.80) this week at Credit Suisse.
Southwest Gas Corp. (NYSE: SWX) was raised to Buy from Hold with a $63 price target at Argus, with the firm seeing a favorable entry point.
Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL) managed to beat earnings expectations despite many challenges. Speaking of challenges, late week reports indicate that the Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI) acquisition may be challenged as well.
ALSO READ: 10 Stocks to Own for the Next Decade
Credit Suisse continues to believe the “Call on American Shale” will rise from 2017 onwards and those companies with the best positioned balance sheet and low-cost shale inventory should rally from current levels over time. They also noted that certain E&P equities have limited downside at $60 oil and decent upside at $70. The firm admitted that its call may be early but the firm raised the sub-sector weighting for E&P to Overweight. Below are just some of the condensed Outperform ratings mentioned in the Credit Suisse call with price target data included:
- Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC) OUTPERFORM & $94 TARGET
- Antero Resources Corporation (AR) OUTPERFORM & $42 TARGET
- Bonanza Creek Energy Inc. (BCEI) OUTPERFORM & $18 TARGET
- CONCHO RESOURCES, INC. (CXO) OUTPERFORM & $147 TARGET
- Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc. (CRZO) OUTPERFORM & $54 TARGET
- Devon Energy Corp (DVN) OUTPERFORM & $80 TARGET
- Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) OUTPERFORM & $99 TARGET
- EOG Resources (EOG) OUTPERFORM & $103 TARGET
- EP Energy Corp. (EPE) OUTPERFORM & $17 TARGET
- Gulfport Energy (GPOR) OUTPERFORM & $56 TARGET
- Hess Corporation (HES) OUTPERFORM & $90 TARGET
- Marathon Oil Corp (MRO) OUTPERFORM & $34 TARGET
- Noble Energy (NBL) OUTPERFORM & $55 TARGET
- PDC Energy (PDCE) OUTPERFORM & $80 TARGET
- Parsley Energy (PE) OUTPERFORM $ $21 TARGET
- Penn Virginia Corp (PVA) OUTPERFORM & $4 TARGET
- Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) OUTPERFORM & $186 TARGET
- Range Resources (RRC) OUTPERFORM & $71 TARGET
- Sanchez Energy Corp. (SN) OUTPERFORM & $11 TARGET
Also, Cowen & Co. issued a very positive review of natural gas for a multi-year outlook. It listed four favorite companies for this gas outlook as being EQT, Rice Energy, Range Resources, and Southwestern Energy.
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