US Oil Production Growth Slowing

New well production is expected to rise from an estimated 433,000 barrels a day in August to 434,000 barrels a day in September. Production from new wells was pegged at 404,000 barrels a day in June.

Since June, total production has dropped 31,000 barrels a day and new production has risen by 30,000 barrels a day.

WTI crude oil which had traded at around $45.00 a barrel just ahead of the EIA report slipped to around $44.75 per barrel following the report’s release. The price bounced off a new 52-week low of $43.35 a barrel posted late last night to a high of $44.83 in late morning action.

Last week’ oil rig count from Baker Hughes rose by 6 to 670 down by 918 rigs compared with the same week in 2014. Drillers have focused on the sweet spots and that, combined with improvements in horizontal drilling and fracking have increased production from new wells even as rig counts have tumbled.

Traders could be front-running on a report that the ban on U.S. exports of crude could get a vote in the U.S. House of Representatives next month and in the Senate early next year. The further assumption is that lifting the ban will reduce the gap of around $5 a barrel between Brent and WTI, pushing the WTI price higher and bringing the Brent price down.

If that happens, then U.S. pump prices should fall because gasoline prices are determined by the price of Brent crude, not WTI. In fact, falling crude prices could well drive up demand, encouraging U.S. producers would pump even more crude for the world market pushing U.S. gasoline prices down even more.

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The Obama administration has not taken a position yet on allowing the U.S. oil exports, U.S. refiners are not excited about the prospect because higher prices for WTI feedstock will cut refining margins.

Shares of Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) traded up about 2.3% in the mid-afternoon Monday at $78.62 in a 52-week range of $76.62 to $100.31.

Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) traded up about 2.4% at $85.717 in a 52-week range of $82.89 to $129.53.