Total non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 57.43 million barrels a day in 2015, up 880,000 barrels a day, a slightly lower total than the 960,000 barrels a day in the July forecast. U.S. product is forecast to grow from an estimated total of 13.86 million barrels a day (including natural gas liquids, or NGLs, and other liquids) this year to an average of 14.19 million barrels a day in 2016.
Total OPEC crude oil production in August averaged 31.54 million barrels a day, up 13,000 from July’s total. That is the highest monthly total so far in 2015 and well above the annual averages for 2013 and 2014. The total is based on non-OPEC estimates.
OPEC has also raised its forecast for 2015 global demand growth to 1.46 million barrels a day, up from 1.34 million in 2014. Demand in 2016 is now forecast at 94.08 million barrels a day, an increase of 1.29 million barrels a day over 2015 levels.
The cartel also reported that the average price of a barrel of oil from its reference basket fell by a whopping 16.1% per barrel, from $54.19 in July to $45.46. OPEC also noted that speculators cut net long positions in the futures market to record lows in August.
Total world oil supplies are now forecast at about 94.62 million barrels a day in 2015, about 17,000 barrels a day lower than total demand.
The report notes that “there are signs that US production has started to respond to reduced investment and activity. Indeed, all eyes are on how quickly US production falls.” The cartel forecasts U.S. production in 2015 at 13.75 million barrels a day, rising slightly to 13.97 million barrels a day in 2016. And that includes cut of 170,000 barrels a day from the August report.
Saudi Arabia reported production of 10.36 million barrels a day in July, and August production was reported to have fallen to 10.265 million barrels a day.
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