The price of oil surged to over $70 a barrel after a military attack on a Saudi oil field and series of decisions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia to cap output. Gasoline prices, already rising sharply, have reached multiyear highs. Eight states have gas prices that have cracked the barrier of $3 for an average gallon of regular.

In fact, as the price of oil has risen, predictions that gasoline will top $3 nationwide for the average gallon of regular have grown. Recently, the carefully followed analysts at GasBuddy forecast a 70% chance per-gallon gas prices will reach $3 by Memorial Day. The company added, “The last time the national average reached the $3/gal threshold was over 2,300 days ago, on October 10, 2014, but did get close in 2018, when the national average reached $2.97 per gallon.”

Additionally, oil prices have risen an extraordinary 86% since the U.S. presidential election. The price was $36 a barrel at the end of November, and at $66 today trades near the highest price in a year. Gasoline prices also have surged. Today, the average price for a gallon of regular in the United States was $2.84, up from $2.50 a month ago.

The best predictor of gasoline prices is oil prices. They almost always outweigh refinery costs, transportation costs and state gas taxes, although each of those factors contributes.

Gas prices by state vary from the national average for several reasons. The first is proximity to refineries. States near the huge refineries along the Gulf of Mexico tend to have the lowest prices in the country. Notably, the five states with the lowest per-gallon gas prices are Mississippi ($2.51), Louisiana ($2.52), Texas ($2.57), South Carolina ($2.59) and Alabama ($2.59). The transportation costs from refineries to nearby areas shaves the average price of gas down, compared with much of the rest of the nation.

Another primary factor in prices is gasoline taxes. According to the American Petroleum Institute survey of state gas taxes as of January 1, the U.S. average is $0.5523 a gallon. States with low gas taxes include Missouri ($0.3582), Mississippi ($0.3719) and New Mexico ($0.3738). The states with the highest gas taxes are California ($0.8145) and Pennsylvania ($0.7710).

Ten states currently have average prices for a gallon of regular at or over $3. California’s $3.80 price clearly is affected by its gas tax. In Hawaii, the price of $3.48 is affected by a relatively high gas tax at $0.6524 per gallon. However, the cost of transportation to islands that are 2,500 miles from the west coast is also a major contributor to Hawaii’s price. The price for a gallon of regular in Washington is $3.25. Its gas tax is a high $0.678 per gallon.

If the GasBuddy analysis is correct, people who might drive for Memorial Day, despite the pandemic, will pay more at the pump than they did last year.

This is the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in all 50 states today:

State	Price
Mississippi	2.505
Louisiana	2.517
Texas	2.568
South Carolina	2.585
Alabama	2.594
Oklahoma	2.597
Arkansas	2.599
Tennessee	2.628
North Carolina	2.635
Montana	2.641
Georgia	2.651
Kansas	2.653
Kentucky	2.676
Missouri	2.681
New Hampshire	2.684
Wisconsin	2.696
Ohio	2.701
Indiana	2.711
Massachusetts	2.720
Virginia	2.722
Vermont	2.741
Rhode Island	2.742
Delaware	2.745
North Dakota	2.770
Minnesota	2.776
Maine	2.780
Wyoming	2.782
West Virginia	2.790
South Dakota	2.792
Iowa	2.806
Colorado	2.807
Maryland	2.808
New Mexico	2.813
Nebraska	2.816
Michigan	2.819
Connecticut	2.837
Idaho	2.846
Florida	2.853
New York	2.863
San Juan	2.867
New Jersey	2.915
Utah	2.939
Illinois	3.000
Washington DC	3.001
Pennsylvania	3.013
Alaska	3.022
Oregon	3.071
Arizona	3.091
Nevada	3.173
Washington	3.251
Hawaii	3.477
California	3.803

Click here to see which states have the highest and lowest gas taxes.

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