The Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) is an iconic brand that helped to define American mechanical design and business supremacy in the 20th century and continues to remain a major player to this day. Founder Henry Ford created the mass production assembly line manufacturing process, and Ford cars and trucks are sold worldwide. It is the second-largest US auto industry builder after General Motors and sixth largest worldwide. 

While Ford has a venerable history, the entire automobile industry has taken some lumps in recent years, such as: 

• Mandates on electric vehicles, thus creating ballooning R&D budgets in EVs.
• Inflation and high interest rates make new car purchases unaffordable.

In the wake of these obstacles, Dearborn, MI headquartered Ford has remained resilient and has continued to stay competitive and innovative. Looking back, Ford went public in 1956 at $64.50. Including splits, a $1,000 investment in Ford in 1972, if kept to the present, would equal about $5242.72 today.

Nevertheless, investors are much more concerned with future stock performance over the next 1, 5, and 10 years. While most Wall Street analysts will calculate 12-month forward projections, it’s clear that nobody has a consistent crystal ball, and plenty of unforeseen circumstances can render even near-term projections irrelevant. 24/7 Wall Street aims to present some farther-looking insights based on Ford’s own numbers, along with business and market development information that may be of help to our readers’ own research.

Key Points In This Article:

• Ford’s strong cash generation, brand loyalty, and attention to customer service should help it weather the current market turbulence in the motor vehicle sector as it continues to recover.
• The failure of the EV market to go beyond the niche level and Ford’s own decisions to scale back EV production are a prescient read on the pendulum swinging back towards internal combustion engine (ICE) autos, which is Ford’s strong suit.
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Ford Stock News and Analysis 

9/17/2024

The law firm Faruqi & Faruqi is investigating potential claims against the Ford Motor Company. The lawsuit claims that Ford and its executives lied to investors about the quality of their cars. It states that Ford had problems with quality since 2022, leading to higher warranty costs. However, it also asserts that Ford’s warranty reserves were not enough to cover the cost of fixing issues with the cars. 

9/16/2024

Ford achieved a new record with its 2025 Mustang GTD. This impressive vehicle is officially the most powerful street-legal Mustang ever produced. The 2025 Mustang GTD has 815 horsepower and 664 pound-feet of torque, reaching a top speed of 202 mph. 

9/13/2024

Ford announced that it is planning to reopen its car factory in Tamil Nadu, India, after closing it two years ago. Previously, Ford used the Chennai factory to make both cars and engines. The company reported plans to use the plant to produce items for export, but it did not provide details of what those items will be yet. 

9/12/2024

After 35 years, Ted Cannis — CEO of Ford Pro and Ford’s customer service division — will be retiring at the end of the month. Ford Pro began in 2021 with Cannis as its lead and has since become a major contributor to the company’s financial success. Ford Pro generated $2.6 billion in revenue during the second quarter of this year. 

9/11/2024

Ford shares are down slightly this morning. The company is considering a new manufacturing partnership in Tamil Nadu, India. This comes after Ford sold one of its Indian plants in 2023 and closed the other. 

9/10/2024

With the introduction of stricter vehicle emissions standards in Australia (the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES)), there is concern about Ford’s future in the country. However, Ford is confident that its mix of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles will fit within the new emissions targets. Although electric vehicles currently make up less than 1% of Ford’s sales in Australia, the company is optimistic about its EV lineup. 

9/6/2024

Ford’s stock price closed slightly higher today by 0.1%. The stock traded within a narrow range and experienced significantly lower trading volume compared to its average. 

9/5/2024

Ford’s car sales increased in August due to the summer buying season and an increased availability of trucks. The company sold 182,985 vehicles in the U.S., which is 13% more than last year. Ford’s overall sales were also higher in August than in July, making it the top-selling brand in the U.S. for the past two months. The company also said that it captured 12.6% of the overall market share in August, which is 0.9% higher than last year. 

9/4/2024

Ford is recalling nearly 91,000 vehicles due to a potential issue with the engines. The problem involves the engine intake valves, which could break while driving. This recall affects several popular Ford and Lincoln models built between 2021 and 2022. These include the Ford Edge, Ford Bronco, Ford F-150, Ford Explorer, Lincoln Nautilus, and Lincoln Aviator. 

Ford’s Recent Price Movements

While longtime Ford investors may have benefited from Ford’s dividend, its stock price clearly has not experienced the recent exponential growth of Magnificent 7 stocks, like Nvidia or Microsoft. The last time Ford had a strong bull run was during the pandemic in March 2020, when the stock soared from an aberrantly low $4.27 to $25 in January 2022, before settling back into its current range in mid-2022, where it has remained ever since. Apart from that last 500% gain, past comparable periodic rise and falls of Ford stock price can be traced back historically going back decades. 

Fiscal Year	Price	Revenues	Net Income
2014	$16.13	$135.378B	$1.23B
2015	$11.17	$140.56B	$7.37B
2016	$12.38	$141.54B	$4.59B
2017	$10.43	$145.66B	$7.73B
2018	$8.71	$148.321B	$3.67B
2019	$8.31	$143.64B	$47M
2020	$11.51	$115.94B	-$1.28B
2021	$17.96	$126.27B	$17.93B
2022	$13.23	$149.08B	-$1.98B
2023	$12.80	$165.90B	$4.34B
TTM	$11.16	$169.09B	$3.83B

Key Drivers for Ford’s Future

• Ford’s core ICE vehicles and F-Series Trucks– Ford’s internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are its core and are still its best sellers. Its pickup trucks lead the world in total sales, with its popular F-series at the head of the pack. Ford’s Maverick hybrid truck is the best-selling hybrid in the US as well. Ford’s increasing sales are still world-class, and its revenue generation metrics support its dividends (by 20x) as well as its operational changes in addressing a changing market.
• Ford’s EV unit-  This division has been slowly growing but has also been gobbling up money like a school of hungry piranhas. ($1.1 billion burned through a single quarter). Recent Ford announcements to delay its EV T-3 trucks and scale back some EV SUV production are in sync with current trends swinging back towards ICE vehicles that can reliably provide safe transport over long distances. The lack of recharging stations that the Department of Transportation had promised to support its EV mandate has disillusioned many former EV advocates.
• Fixed quality issues– Ford’s stock fallbacks were reactions to larger warranty budget allocations and overall auto industry unemployment in the market, which created concerns over quality control. These issues have been addressed as shifting toward newer technologies tied to Ford’s Pro series AV components and towards ensuring more reliable future performance for its customers.

Stock Price Prediction for 2025:

The consensus rating from two dozen Wall Street analysts is ‘moderate buy/outperform’. The average price target in 12 months is $13.43, which is roughly up 24.35% from the price at the time of this writing.

24/7 Wall Street’s 12-month projects Ford’s price to be $13.23. We believe this is a conservative estimate based on the implementation of Ford’s changes and the upcoming Presidential election results, which will determine whether or not EV mandates will be maintained or eliminated. Should the latter occur, then the target price could easily run higher. 

Ford’s Next 5 Years’ Outlook:

With the caveat of the November Presidential election results set aside and assuming the status quo is maintained in the market with regard to EVs, we estimate Ford’s 2025 price to be $13.23, which would be up 22.50%. The expenditures for the expanded warranty service for AV technology upgrades, the marketing changes to de-emphasize the T-3 promotions, and the expected easing of labor concerns would all be implemented.

2026 would start to see the results of 2025’s initiatives. We anticipate that revenues would increase by $15 billion, leading to an additional $0.10 EPS, resulting in a slight stock price gain to $13.59, which would be up 25.83% from the current price.

Assuming that inflation finally gets under control and interest rates can come down appreciably, Ford’s Ford Credit unit, which supplies auto purchase financing, should once again be a meaningful bottom-line contributor in 2027. We anticipate another $16.5 billion in boosted revenues, which would subsequently increase EPS to $2.27, and a stock price target of $14.45, which would be up 33.80% from the current price.

Given its size and industry, Ford’s profit margins are not large, so growth comes at a much smaller rate than in the tech industry. Continuing the trajectory of roughly 1.4% annual growth, barring any new initiatives or breakthrough products, we expect Ford to add $2.72 billion in revenues for 2028. 24/7 Wall Street’s target price would be $14.66, up 35.74% from today’s price.

Estimates see 2029 with a $4.5 billion revenue bump and a $15 stock price, up 38.89% from the current price, assuming things stay on course for Ford.

Ford Stock in 2030:

2030 could see some new developments from Ford Pro AV development and non-vehicular markets as well as other R&D, resulting in an approximate $10 billion revenue increase and a commensurate stock price hike to $15.75. This would equate to a nearly 45.83% gain over the present market price for Ford.

Year	Revenue ($B)	P/S Multiple	Market Cap ($B)	Stock Price ($)
2025	176.36	0.3	52.91	$13.23
2026	181.2	0.3	54.36	$13.59
2027	192.73	0.3	57.82	$14.45
2028	195.45	0.3	58.64	$14.66
2029	200.00	0.3	60	$15.00
2030	210.00	0.3	63	$15.75

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