For the past century, the Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) has been an entertainment pioneer in international branding, animation, films, television, merchandising, and theme parks. Although the media empire holds some of the most cherished brands, the stock currently 51.83% of its 2021 high of $191.

The return of CEO Bob Iger has helped to steady the ship but investors are much more concerned with future stock performance over the next 1, 5, to 10 years. While most Wall Street analysts will calculate 12-month forward projections, it’s clear that nobody has a consistent crystal ball, and plenty of unforeseen circumstances can render even near term projections irrelevant.

24/7 Wall Street aims to present some farther looking insights based on Disney’s own numbers, along with business and market development information that may be of help to our readers’ own research.

Key Points In This Article

• The success of Disney’s Marvel and Star Wars franchises will hinge on returning to winning formulas instead of succumbing to political pressures to tinker with popular characters and storylines.
• Disney’s streaming platforms have finally found the way to profitability and should be able to build better margins going forward.
• A $60 billion new attraction investment in Disney’s 12 theme parks, its cruise lines, and other merchandising should return that segment to become the company’s primary profit engine.
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5 to 10 Year Review

Bob Iger’s 15-year initial tenure at Disney is notable for (4) acquisition milestones: Pixar in 2006, Marvel in 2009, Lucasfilm in 2012, and Fox in 2019. Disney’s market cap grew from $56 billion to $231 billion by the time his contract expired in 2020. A look at the top 10 all-time box office grossing films shows that except for Titanic and Jurassic Park, Disney or its subsidiaries are the exclusive US distributor for those films (or a 25% stake in the case of Sony’s Spider-Man: No Way Home).

Iger’s successor, Bob Chapek, was essentially handed the keys a well oiled machine but the company hit a number of rough patches and the stock has been on a long term slide.

• Disney would lose about $11 billion from the delays with Disney+, with operating income decreasing by 18% in the push to attract streaming subscribers for Disney+. ESPN+, Hulu, and its other direct-to-consumer (DTC) platforms.
• Gross over budget spending of $725 million on Marvel TV shows.
• After Iron Man director Jon Favreau’s success with The Mandalorian tv spin-off from the Star Wars franchise, the subsequent Kathleen Kennedy-produced TV series were met with yawns and outcries from loyal fans who detested the changes she made in the Star Wars canon, along with her intentional killing off of the main Star Wars characters to make room for her new ones. 

Fiscal Year (Sept. 30)	Price	Revenues	Net Income
2015	$103.00	$52.465B	$8.382B
2016	$92.47	$55.632B	$9.391B
2017	$100.70	$55.137B	$8.898B
2018	$114.78	$59.434B	$12.598B
2019	$130.27	$69.607B	$11.054B
2020	$122.55	$65.388B	-$2.864B
2021	$176.01	$67.418B	$1.995B
2022	$94.33	$82.722B	$3.145B
2023	$81.05	$88.898B	$2.354B
2024 (11 months)	$90.56	$90.028B	$4.776B

Key Drivers for Disney’s Future

While Inside Out 2 demonstrated the resilience of Disney’s animation department, Iger’s repairs to Disney’s floundering segments have regained their fan bases and show promise.

• Rectifying the casting and plotline issues with Marvel’s projects, Iger has overseen dumping the storyline starring  Jonathan Majors as the antagonist for The Avengers, and replacing him with franchise icon Robert Downey Jr. as comic favorite Doctor Doom.
• Restoring the winning formula of the popular Marvel Netflix action series Daredevil with the original cast and continuation of the series storyline, as opposed to the Chapek team’s plan to turn it into a courtroom drama.
• While the Star Wars casting and plotline problems still exist, the recent cancellation notice of the underperforming The Acolyte may be the harbinger of a similar cleanup.
• To cut expenses and extend profits in DTC, Disney announced the elimination of its “TV Everywhere”-style apps, including DisneyNOW, Freeform, FXNOW, ABC, and National Geographic in September. This is intended to drive subscribers to Disney+ and Hulu.
• Challenges from Amazon Prime, Netflix, and Peacock to bite into ESPN’s sports coverage is not expected to impact Disney significantly. Both NFL and NBA games may be shared with its rivals, but soccer, racing, and other sports are still firmly in ESPN’s stable. Both Disney’s ESPN and ABC channels have a well cushioned 37% operating margin, so losing some market share will not impact profits significantly.
• Although inflation has forced millions of people to cut back on their family vacations, sales at Disney theme parks were still up 2% in Q3 2024. Disney has allocated a 10-year, $60 billion plan to add new attractions and to better enhance the guest experience.

The primary issue Disney faces is finding Iger’s next successor. He came out of retirement at the request of Disney’s Board, but has made it clear that he doesn’t intend to stay for another long haul. 

Stock Price Prediction for 2025:

The consensus 12-month Disney price target from 28 different analysts is $111.93 per share, which would calculate growth estimates at 21%. 15 of them rated Disney a “buy”, 9 were “outperform”, and 4 were “hold”.  24/7 Wall Street’s 12-month Disney price projection is $114.62, which would be a 24.65% gain. This is predicated on the anticipation that the forthcoming film and TV slate schedule will proceed as projected.

Children’s favorite Moana, the animated South Pacific adventure heroine whose mythological sidekick was voiced by Dwayne Johnson, will return in Moana 2 going into the 2024 Christmas holidays, which should boost 2025’s revenues as Disney’s fiscal year ends September 30. Mufasa: The Lion King, a sequel to the monster box-office hit The Lion King, will close out 2024’s releases. Zootopia 2 and a live remake of Lilo and Stitch round out the 2025 family entertainment slate.

2025 is expected to also delve deeper into Marvel’s next phase, with Captain America: Brave New World, Thunderbolts, and The Fantastic Four: First Steps. 

Disney’s Next 5 Years’ Outlook

2026 is expected to see the first Star Wars feature film since 2019 with the return of Jon Favreau directing The Mandalorian and Grogu, yet another Iger reiteration of a winning formula. Additionally, animated feature franchise Toy Story 5 and the long awaited live action Moana  should both do big box-office numbers for family entertainment. 

High anticipation Blockbuster sequels for 2026 include the third installment of the Avatar saga, Avatar: Fire and Ash. As a follow-up to Avengers: Endgame, 2026 is the target date for release of the aforementioned Robert Downey Jr.-led Avengers sequel, Avengers: Doomsday. Avatar and Avengers: Endgame are the #1 and #2 all-time worldwide box office champions. 

These movies, with huge fan bases and positive word of mouth, should be able to help drive Disney to $129.14, which would be a 13-14% year-over-year gain.

Several analysts believe that 2027-2028 will see the start of the DTC division solidifying its profit engine, and is expected to offer bundled subscription packages that will increase viewership, customers, and revenues, as account churning and costs are further reduced. 

Other expected box-office hits include Pixar’s Incredibles 3, Frozen III, and Marvel’s as of yet untitled next Spider-Man feature, Avengers: Secret Wars a follow-up to Doomsday, and the next Star Wars feature: Star Wars: New Jedi Order. While 2027 would see Disney’s price retrace slightly to $122.60, we believe the 2028 revenues from DTC and the tentpole films slated for 2027 that would have fall and winter box-office revenues credited to fiscal year 2028, and would boost the stock to $135.60.

Disney stock in 2030

The theme park industry, of which Disney has a 25% market share, was valued at $64.6 billion at the start of 2024. It is estimated to grow to $82.73 billion by 2032. The 10-year, $60 billion plan to add more attractions to Disney theme parks and cruises will likely involve greater interactive technology, virtual reality, and other experiences that could not be replicated elsewhere.

While stages of this development would certainly make its way to Disney’s bottom line in previous years, we anticipate many of their innovations to be in full operation and available to the public in 2029, which would boost it on the initial novelty value to a $149 five year high.

However, high ticket prices that compete with other entertainment platforms might require price reductions. That, combined with uncertainty over Bob Iger’s successor, might cause a slight sell-off. Nevertheless, Disney would still be up 61% in 2030 over its current market price at the time of this writing. 

Year	Normalized EPS	P/E Ratio	Projected Stock Price
2025	$5.21	22	$114.62
2026	$5.87	22	$129.14
2027	$6.13	20	$122.60
2028	$6.78	20	$135.60
2029	$7.45	20	$149.00
2030	$8.10	18	$145.80

 

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