Apple Inc’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) market cap is currently $3.6 trillion, making it the most valuable company traded on any US exchange. It has raced up at the same pace as the S&P 500 this year, pushing it up 22%. Another 10% increase will bring it to $4 trillion, making it the first public corporation to break that barrier.
Two things could drive the stock up or potentially downward. The first is the count of iPhone 16 unit sales. Analysts have several sets of estimates. The most recent of these is from Counterpoint, which said that sales were up 20% in the first three weeks it was on the market in China. This is compared to iPhone 15 sales for the same period a year ago. China is a critical market because there are 900 million smartphone owners compared to less than 300 million in the US.
The second catalyst for the share price is the next earnings announcement on October 31. It’s hard to say what a home run quarter would look like. Last year’s revenue was $89.5 billion, and EPS was $1.46. iPhone 16 sales will barely be included based on when the phone first went on sale. However, it will need to show significant progress from the 2023 numbers.
Apple is in a race for the $4 trillion crowd. The other contestant is AI bellwether Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA), whose earnings need to grow in high double digits to keep up its extraordinary revenue run.
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