When it comes to weight loss drugs, Ozempic has become a phenomenon. With nearly $14 billion sales in 2023, it shows no signs of slowing down, much to the delight of its Danish manufacturer, Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE: NVO). A Scandinavian economic behemoth, Novo Nordisk is the highest valued company in Europe at over $500 billion, which exceeds Denmark’s entire GDP.  Ironically, Ozempic and Wegovy, as with many of Novo Nordisk’s other products, were created primarily for treating diabetes. The weight-loss factor has become a very profitable and unintended side-effect. 

Founded a century ago, Copenhagen-based Nordisk originally made insulin. After coming to the US in 1982, it underwent several corporate changes until becoming Novo Nordisk in 1989. In addition to diabetes drugs, the company also makes drug treatments for wound healing, menopausal hormone replacement, and human growth hormone. 

Headwinds

While Novo Nordisk has built itself into a pharmaceutical giant, it has seriously run afoul of regulatory laws on several occasions. Novo Nordisk’s practices have raised red flags in Denmark as well as in the US and UK for years, with the more recent ones being:

• A 2017 $59 million fine from the DOJ due to lack of FDA disclosures concerning cancer risks from diabetes drug Victoza;
• Membership suspension from the UK’s Association of British Pharmacy Industry over ethics violations tantamount to bribing of health professionals;
• 235 active Ozempic related product liability lawsuits as of August, 2024;
• A 2024 investigation led by the US Senate confirmed predatory pricing of Ozempic by almost 1500% vs. its price in Europe, and 1000% for Wegovy.

Regardless, investors are much more concerned with future stock performance over the next 1, 5, to 10 years. While most Wall Street analysts will calculate 12-month forward projections, it’s clear that nobody has a consistent crystal ball, and plenty of unforeseen circumstances can render even near term projections irrelevant. 24/7 Wall Street aims to present some farther looking insights based on Novo Nordisk’s own numbers, along with business and market development information that may be of help to our readers’ own research.

Key Points In This Article

• Novo Nordisk sees the obesity drug market expanding to $100 billion by 2030. To that end, it has Amycretin in FDA phase-1 and CagriSegma in phase-2 trials, which both show greater efficacy potential than Wegovy and Ozempic.
• Although the number of Ozempic-related lawsuits are piling up, Novo Nordisk’s stance is that the complaints are unwarranted, and will either be dismissed or settled.
• Novo Nordisk’s past acquisitions for both greater production capacity and logistical flexibility will reap benefits through geopolitical risk mitigation and broader product menu options.
• Entering untapped markets, such as China, will be key to Novo Nordisk’s future growth. 
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Novo Nordisk News and Updates

11/22/2024

BMO Capital remains optimistic about Novo Nordisk, reaffirming its “Outperform” rating and setting a $156 price target. The firm anticipates positive impacts on Novo Nordisk’s stock due to potential EU approval of Novo Holdings’ acquisition of Catalent.

11/21/2024

Novo Nordisk’s stock price declined 3.01% today, dipping as low as $101.51.

11/20/2024

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are reaching out to labor unions and HR to advocate for anti-obesity drugs like Ozempic, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Zepbound.

11/19/2024

Novo Nordisk has experienced intense options trading activity today, with investors purchasing 38,912 call options. This represents a 45% increase compared to the average call option volume of 26,924.

11/18/2024

Novo Nordisk is launching a share repurchase program. The company plans to buy back up to DKK 20 billion worth of B shares over the next 12 months, starting in February 2024. To date, Novo Nordisk has already purchased B shares valued at over DKK 17 billion. The latest phase of the repurchase program will see Novo Nordisk buy back up to DKK 3.1 billion worth of B shares between November 11, 2024, and February 3, 2025.

5-10 Year Review

Novo Nordisk has spared no expense in expanding its pharmaceutical reach and scope. In addition to adding new factories to ramp up production to meet demand for Ozempic and Wegovy, the company’s expansion towards treating other afflictions saw billions spent in acquisitions. The past decade has seen the following events:

• In 2015, Novo Nordisk announced a $400 million collaboration with Sanofi subsidiary Ablynx, to use its nanobody technology to develop a new drug.
• After an unsuccessful bid to acquire Ablynx in 2018, Novo Nordisk bought diabetes drug company Ziylo.
• 2020 saw Novo Nordisk buying Corvidia Therapeutics from AstraZeneca for its heart disease treatments.
• Novo Nordisk announced it would acquire Emisphere Technologies for $1.35 billion in December 2020, adding another diabetes pill to its catalog.  
• In November 2021, Novo Nordisk acquired Dicerna Pharmaceuticals and its RNAi therapeutics, for $3.3 billion.
• Intending to expand its sickle cell disease and rare blood disorders portfolio, 2022 saw Novo Nordisk buying Forma Therapeutics for $1.1 billion.
• Flush with Ozempic and Wegovy cash, Novo Nordisk bought Inversago Pharma for $1 billion, Embark Biotech for up to $500 million,  ocedurenone—an experimental drug for uncontrolled hypertension and potentially beneficial in treating cardiovascular and kidney diseases—from KBP Biosciences for $1.3 billion during 2023.
• To address expanding Ozempic and Wegovy demand, Novo Nordisk’s parent, Novo Holdings, bought NJ-based Catalent, a global provider of drug delivery systems, gene therapies, manufacturing, biologics, and other operations, in 2024.
• 2024 also saw the acquisitions of Cardior Pharmaceuticals for its cardiovascular treatment portfolio, and Austria’s Single use Support, a fluid management company. 

Fiscal Year (DEC)	Price	Revenues	Net Income
		DKK (=US$0.15)	DKK (=US$0.15)
2015	$29.04	107.927B/$16.19B	34.860B/$5.23B
2016	$17.93	111.780B/$16.76B	37.925B/$5.69B
2017	$26.83	111.696B/$16.75B	38.130B/$5.72B
2018	$23.03	111.831B/$16.77B	38.628B/$5.79B
2019	$28.94	122.021B/$18.30B	38.951B/$5.84B
2020	$34.92	126.946B/$19.04B	42.138B/$6.32B
2021	$56.00	140.800B/$21.12B	47.757B/$7.16B
2022	$67.67	176.954B/$26.54B	55.525B/$8.33B
2023	$103.45	232.261B/$34.84B	83.683B/$12.55B
2024 LTM (as of June)	$142.74	258.003B/$38.70B	89.898B/$13.48B

Key Drivers for Novo Nordisk’s Stock in the Future

• A more potent obesity treatment called CagriSema combines semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic, with amylin and calcitonin receptor agonists. Amylin helps regulate blood sugar levels, similar to GLP-1, while calcitonin controls calcium levels in the blood. Results for two late-stage FDA trials of the drug are expected by the end of 2024.
• Wegovy’s June 2024 approval for sales in China opens the door to a new market, which has hundreds of million prospective new customers from China’s burgeoning middle and upper class. 
• New experimental obesity drug Amycretin, a single molecule that operates as a GLP-1 receptor agonist that reduces one’s appetite, is in phase-1 FDA trials. The new pill  achieved a 13.1% average weight loss after 12 weeks, more than doubling the efficacy of Wegovy for the same time span.
• With the obesity drug market expected to reach $100 billion by 2030, genetic-based treatments currently in the R&D stage could become the next pharma golden ring.  
• While some legal experts believe that the number of Ozempic lawsuits over gastroparesis and other afflictions, such as pancreatitis, kidney, and gallbladder issues, can reach as high as 20,000, Novo Nordisk is apparently confident it can reach a settlement that will allow it to continue its growth trajectory without impediment.

Stock Price Prediction for 2025

Out of 11 Wall Street analysts, their consensus recommendation is “outperform/hold”, based on 5 buy, 2 outperform, 2 hold, and 2 sell.  Their consensus 12-month target price for Novo Nordisk is $140.07, which is a 36.48% gain over today’s stock price. The 24/7 Wall Street 12-month projected target is a more conservative $124.20. This would be 21.02% above today’s price. 

Novo Nordisk’s Next 5 Years’ Outlook

Novo Nordisk’s median P/E ratio has been 26.40 from 2010 to the present. The following price predictions are based on a 25 P/E. In the subsequent 5 years to follow, Novo Nordisk’s newest products, presently in FDA trials, are targeting the obesity market.

It is anticipated to reach $100 billion by 2030. Obesity drugs competing against offerings from Eli Lilly and other rivals require drugs that meet the following criteria: Sufficient efficacy to fulfill the medical needs of a large population of patients;

• Tolerable enough for prolonged patient treatment to obtain a significant and consistent therapeutic effect;
• Flexible enough to be prescribed to patients without an abundance of diagnostic testing or monitoring;
• Formulaically efficient enough to manufacture and distribute at scale.

With Wegovy gaining acceptance for China in Q2 2024, this opens the door for Novo Nordisk to gain a foothold in a potentially larger market than the entirety of its European share. China’s middle and wealthy classes have multiplied exponentially as China’s GDP has grown. Obesity, heart diseases, and other ailments common in the West have escalated in China as diets and lifestyles adapted to mimic Western tastes and trends. Our price target for 2026 is $136.62.

The new obesity drug CagriSema is presently near completion of FDA phase-2 trials. Assuming there are no negative results to bar initiating clinical phase-3 trials, these would presumably occur throughout 2025 and 2026.  Therefore, CagriSema is likely to be cleared for public dissemination and ready for market by 2027. Although it is administered via injection, rather than in pill form, early results show a 200% higher weight loss reduction in 32 weeks, over Wegovy. Our price target for 2027 is $153.01.

Although Novo Nordisk’s pipeline of new drugs under FDA review targets obesity, its revamped product menu has expanded via acquisitions. Revenues from its HGH, estrogen replacement, and wound treatment products, as well as other diabetes variants, should all contribute to the bottom line with full production, marketing, and sales integration by 2028. We predict a price of $165.26.

Obesity pill Amecrytin, which acts as an appetite suppressant without the effects of amphetamines, is presently in FDA phase-1 trials, but should be cleared for market and ready for distribution in 2029. Its weight-loss efficacy doubles that of Wegovy in shorter 3-month periods, and its pill configuration convenience should make it a hit prescription for doctors. Our price target is $186.74.

Novo Nordisk Stock in 2030

R&D for a genetic based obesity drug is currently in the works by Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, and several other rivals. With the obesity treatment market expected to hit $100 billion in 2030, even the announcement of a genetic-based drug ready to start FDA trials would generate significant buzz. With Novo Nordisk the current market leader, such an announcement in 2030 is not a stretch. Our target price is $192.34.

Cumulatively, 24/7 Wall Street anticipates Novo Nordisk to appreciate 79% over the next 5 years.

Year	EPS	P/E multiple	Price
2025	$4.97	25	$124.20
2026	$5.46	25	$136.62
2027	$6.12	25	$153.01
2028	$6.61	25	$165.26
2029	$7.47	25	$186.74
2030	$7.69	25	$192.34

 

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