Dutch Bros (NYSE:BROS) is the third-largest coffee shop in the U.S. behind Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) and Dunkin Brands.

Yet with 950 stores in 18 states, Dutch Bros trails its rivals by a significant margin. In comparison, Dunkin has over 9,000 locations in the U.S. and over 13,000 globally. Starbucks is even bigger, with almost 16,500 locations domestically and another 12,600 or so in international markets.

Still, Dutch Bros is rapidly expanding, implementing a “fortressing” strategy to flood a market with stores to create mind share with customers and generate efficiency in its operations.

It is much newer to the market than either of its peers, having gone public in September, 2021 at an offer price of $23 a share. Today, BROS stock trades at nearly $55 a stub, up 140% since then

However, as investors, we want to know whether Dutch Bros will be a good investment over the next three or five years and beyond. 

24/7 Wall Street is offering readers insights into our assumptions about the stock’s prospects, what sort of growth we see in BROS stock for the next several years. We aim to give you our best estimates for Dutch Bros’ stock price each year through 2030.

Key Points in This Article:

• Dutch Bros (BROS) is one of the fastest-growing coffee chains in the country.
• Its drive-thru model allows for quick, relatively inexpensive expansion in new and existing markets.
• BROS prefers a “fortressing” strategy of adding more locations to existing markets to create mind share in consumers and improve operating efficiency.
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Dutch Bros performance from IPO to today

The following is a table of BROS’ revenues, operating income, and share price for its first three years as a public company.

The table summarizes performance in share price, revenues, and operating losses from 2021 through the first three quarters of 2024.

	Share Price (end of year)	Revenue	Operating Income
2021	$50.91	$497,876	($111,226)
2022	$28.19	$739,012	($2,612)
2023	$31.67	$965,776	$46,222
TTM	$52.97	$1,192,352	$92,494

_{Revenue and operating income in millions.}

Dutch Bros is rapidly expanding. It has opened 30 or more stores every quarter for the last 13 consecutive quarters. It anticipates opening a total of 150 new locations this year.

That helps explain the rapid increase in revenue it is experiencing even though the fortressing strategy can cannibalize sales at existing locations. Although individual unit sales can decline from the practice, revenue as a whole rises. It has been one of the primary driving forces behind pizza chain Domino’s (NYSE:DPZ) success.

As Dutch Bros adds new features such as mobile ordering, the coffee shop is now solidly profitable, with plenty of room for additional expansion in the years to come.

3 key drivers of Dutch Bros stock performance

1. Fortressing growth strategy. As discussed above, Dutch Bros has been able to rapidly increase its footprint by flooding a market with more locations. Not only does it help with imprinting the brand on consumers, but it allows the company’s marketing budget to stretch further as advertising covers more stores in a region. It ultimately lowers the coffee chain’s expenses.
2. Drive-thru windows. Dutch Bros is a drive-thru coffee shop, which minimizes a store’s size, making it cheaper to open more locations. With mobile ordering now expanding to more stores, it will allow for faster service and customer satisfaction.
3. Operational efficiency. With a healthy balance between company-owned stores and franchised locations, as well as a sound balance sheet, Dutch Bros should continue to improve its operational efficiency and manage costs to have net income growth rates above revenue growth.

Dutch Bros (BROS) stock price prediction in 2025

The current consensus one-year price target for Dutch Bros stock is $47.30 per share, implying greater than 9% downside from today’s price of $52.97 per share. There are 11 analysts covering Dutch Bros, their views range from a low of $36 per share to a high of $55 per share.

24/7 Wall Street’s 12-month forecast projects BROS stock price to be $62.95. We see Dutch Bros continuing its near 30% growth and earnings coming in at $0.50 per share.

Dutch Bros stock forecast through 2030

Valuing Dutch Bros’ stock price for the coming years, we’ll begin with management’s expected revenue of $1.26 billion for 2024 and its adjusted EBITDA of as much as $220 million. Then we’ll give our best estimate of the market value of the company by assigning a price-to-sales multiple.

How Dutch Bros next 5 years could play out

Management will continue its ambitious growth plans, opening more locations in more markets. Because it carefully manages its expansion, preferring regions it is familiar with to willy-nilly growth in new states, it will be able to regulate its sales and profits.

We’ll assign Dutch Bros a slightly lower P/S of 6.2 as the market continues to reward the coffee shop for its efforts, giving us a price target of $77.68 per share in 2025, a near-47% gain over today’s price.

As Dutch Bros fortressing strategy continues to pay dividends, revenue should be able to maintain its 25% growth rate in 2026. That means it should continue to trade at elevated multiples consistent with where it trades today, giving us a price target of $85.45 per share.

For 2027, we forecast the fast-growing coffee chain will ease revenue growth slightly to 20% growth though the market will begin pricing it closer to its peers. We’ll assign it a P/S ratio of 5.3, translating into a price target of 82.34 per share. 

Growth will remain robust at 20% in 2028 as its store count continues to expand even as it remains far behind its rivals. But the market will price Dutch Bros more on the level of the industry, or a P/S of 4, for a price target three years out of $74.68 per share.

Growth will continue to ease to 17% the following year, which will see traders value it at around 3.5 times sales. That gives us a price target of 76.33 per share in 2029.

Dutch Bros stock price target for 2030

At this point, Dutch Bros footprint should have expanded to a majority of the states, but it will still be able to deploy the fortressing strategy as it grows.

With sales widening now at a steady 15% annually, the market will see it as a mature competitor and will hold its valuation at 3.5 times sales. That will support a long-range forecast for a stock price target of $86.12 per share, or 63% upside from today.

Year	Revenue	EPS	Stock Price	% Change from Today
2025	$1,575	$0.50	$62.95	Upside of 18.84%
2026	$1,969	$0.59	$77.68	Upside of 46.65%
2027	$2,363	$0.71	$85.48	Upside of 61.37%
2028	$2,835	$0.84	$74.56	Upside of 40.76%
2029	$3,317	$0.98	$76.33	Upside of 44.10%
2030	$3,814	$1.13	$86.12	Upside of 62.58%

_{Revenue in millions of dollars.}

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